Colorado Rockies 2015 Crystal Ball: Drew Stubbs

Apr 21, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Drew Stubbs (13) reacts in the dugout in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field. The Padres defeated the Rockies 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

As the season gets underway, RoxPile.com is making some fun (but completely unqualified!) predictions about how members of the Colorado Rockies will fare this summer. In this edition: Drew Stubbs.

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Drew Stubbs had the best year of his career in Denver in 2014, slashing .289/.339/.482, and even though he struck out 136 times in 424 plate appearances, he did knock 22 doubles and another 15 home runs to go along with twenty stolen bases.

The Rockies rewarded him with a one-year, $5.83 million contract in arbitration this offseason, and he has in turn rewarded them with… well… a lot of strikeouts. Like, it’s bad. Anyways, the numbers and the projections forthcoming, here’s where we’ve got Drew Stubbs this season:

What The Numbers Say

FanGraphs lists various projection systems, which you can learn more about here.

The projection systems are divided on Stubbs at this point, with ZiPS shockingly believing he will play 130+ games this year despite his ice-cold start at the plate, and the starting outfield of CarGo, Blackmon, and Dickerson. Maybe the projection counts on one (or several) of them getting hurt, but even then, with the way Stubbs swung it in Spring Training and the first two weeks of the season, I’d think Brandon Barnes would probably earn those at-bats…

Anyways, neither projection believes Stubbs will come anywhere close to his 2014 production, dropping 30-40 points in batting average, and hitting fewer home runs and doubles while not stealing as many bases.
In light of how he’s playing, that’s probably a safe bet..

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Best-Case Scenario

The best-case scenario with Stubbs was probably what we saw last year, right? He had 22 doubles, 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases and he didn’t play the entire season. Plus, he hit .289 despite striking out 32.1% of the time. Because of his historic strikeout rates, I can’t imagine a better-case scenario than Stubbs hitting .289; he’d have to have the most insane BABIP rate imaginable to break the .300 threshold with his career strikeout rates.

Can he repeat that best-case scenario of 2014 again in 2015?

Worst-Case Scenario

We’re seeing it. Drew Stubbs, the human wind farm.

Crystal Ball

I have no faith in Stubbs figuring it out at the plate. Even if he “figures it out” a bit, he’s a career .245 hitter (and that’s raised from his big year last summer, his most recent two full seasons before that, he hit .213 and .233 for the Reds and Indians).

In my Drew Stubbs crystal ball, I see a whole lot of Brandon Barnes, and who knows, maybe some Kyle Parker.

Give us your predictions!

Comment below, find us on Facebook, or tweet us @RoxPileFS and let us know. You can also use the hashtag #RoxCrystalBall.

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