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Rockies 2015 ZiPS Projections: Is Nolan Arenado surpassing Carlos Gonzalez?

By Hayden Kane

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Let’s take a look at the Rockies 2015 ZiPS Projections and attempt to analyze what they might tell us about Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez.

Dan Szymbrowski’s ZiPS computer-generated predictions have been released on FanGraphs for the last number of years. In the dead of winter, it is projections such as these that give us fodder to discuss and consider while we wait for the return of our baseball.

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The ZiPS projections for the Rockies tell a predictably depressing story: Troy Tulowitzki is great, Nolan Arenado is on the rise, and the rest of this roster is decidedly mediocre. In this case, we are going to turn our attention to Arenado.

For the last handful of years, the Rockies have been known for their two star players: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

The two are lumped together in seemingly every way possible: they both agreed to team-friendly contract extensions well before being eligible for free agency, they both have posted MVP-caliber seasons in Colorado, they are both quite injury prone, they both have recently been the subject of trade rumors…shoot, even their nicknames sound the same.

For better or for worse, the Rockies have been known as Tulo and CarGo’s team. That’s true in Colorado and in national coverage. But a funny thing has been happening over the course of the last year or so.

Is Nolan Arenado emerging as the co-face of the franchise? Whether you feel that Arenado is surpassing Gonzalez or simply joining him, it seems impossible to ignore the fact that he is now arguably the second-best player on the Rockies.

I will say one thing before going too much further – I think that the injuries and generally depressing tone of the last couple seasons might have made us forget how good Carlos Gonzalez is when he’s right. Realistically I think Arenado will have a better season in 2015, but CarGo still has the kind of ceiling where he can be one of the best players in baseball if he stays healthy. Arenado isn’t there, at least not yet.

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In 2014, Nolan Arenado showed us what is possible if his bat continues to catch up to his elite glove. What happens is that the Rockies have an outstanding third baseman to go along with the best shortstop in baseball when both men are on the field.

Arenado’s boost last season is reflected in the 2015 ZiPS projections for the Rockies. Take a look:

  • Arenado: .288/.327/.463, 3.2 zWAR
  • Gonzalez: .281/.348/.517, 1.8 zWAR

Boiled down to the point, Arenado projects to be a full win more valuable than Gonzalez according to ZiPS.

The wild card is CarGo’s health, of course, but we should know better by now. Let’s just hope that Arenado’s stint on the disabled list in 2014 was an outlier and not a sign of another star Rockies’ player who won’t be able to stay healthy.

That history of injury troubles for Gonzalez is baked into these projections, it would seem: CarGo is projected to log 423 plate appearances, while Arenado is projected to have 568. Yes, these are computer generated, but that difference feels about right and helps explain how important Arenado could be to the 2015 Rockies.

As 2014 unfolded, it started to feel like Nolan Arenado was the second-most important member of the Rockies and not Carlos Gonzalez. As we gear up for 2015, it feels like that trend will continue, something that is reflected in the 2015 ZiPS projections for the team.

Next: Colorado Rockies: What to expect in 2015

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