Colorado Rockies 2015 Crystal Ball: Kyle Kendrick

Mar 6, 2015; Tempe, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Kyle Kendrick (38) on the mound in the first inning during a spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

As the season gets underway, RoxPile.com is making some fun (but completely unqualified!) predictions about how members of the Colorado Rockies will fare this summer. In this edition: Kyle Kendrick. 

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After spending his entire career with the Philadelphia Phillies, starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick joined the Colorado Rockies on a one-year, $5.5 million free agent deal for 2015.

He’s expected to help anchor the rotation this summer and start 30+ games, as he has done four times in his career with the Phillies.

He won’t be flashy – don’t expect more seven inning shutouts like he gave the club on Opening Day – but if he pitches well enough he can be very valuable as a consistent rotation member who can take the ball every fifth day and give the team 30+ chances to win. Sometimes, in Coors Field, that’s about as good as you can expect.

What The Numbers Say

FanGraphs lists various projection systems, which you can learn more about here.

FanGraphs believes Kendrick will fall just short of that 30-game start mark, with various projection systems expecting him to toss 28-ish games and 165-170 innings.

That’d be all good and well if guys like Jorge De La Rosa can get healthy, and newcomers like Eddie Butler and (hopefully soon) Jon Gray can assert themselves as big leaguers over the course of the summer.

More importantly than starts and innings, though, projections believe Kendrick will see a spike in ERA, FIP, and home runs allowed per nine innings, none of which should really surprise you considering he’s pitching half his games at Coors Field (though, he did come from a hitter’s park in Philadelphia).

Considering he’s thrown 182 and 199 innings in the last two seasons, with mid-4.00 ERA values, projections anticipate Kendrick to do less – and be less effective – with the Rockies this year. No doubt Phillies fans have thoughts about that.

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Best-Case Scenario

In a best-case scenario, we see much more of the Kendrick we saw on Opening Day.

He probably won’t play a full season with a 0.00 ERA, but if he can continue locating pitches like he did last Monday and toss seven scoreless fairly often, well, wow.

In the absolutely best-case scenario, you might be looking at Kendrick winning 15 games (which would be quite an achievement) with a 4.20(ish) ERA across 30+ starts and 200 innings. That’d be a really good free agent signing if, you know, he got close to that.

Worst-Case Scenario

In a worst-case scenario, everything blows up and Monday was just a cruel, cruel tease that will never again come to fruition. Kendrick could very well get homer-happy and give up 200+ hits this year, start less than 30 games, or be removed from the rotation in the middle of the year in favor of Butler/Gray/John Lannan/possibly me.

There’s a lot of ways this could go badly for him, and any pitcher, since we’re talking about Coors Field, and Kendrick’s signing certainly makes you nervous in case everything goes to hell in a handbasket (or something).

Crystal Ball

I’m not nearly as high on Kendrick as I was on De La Rosa or Jordan Lyles. But that doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher! Quite the contrary! I think you’re looking at a pitcher who is going to start every fifth day and do the most important thing any pitcher can possibly do: keep his team in the game.

Some days, that may mean giving up five runs in six innings and leaving a 5-4 game with the offense still in striking distance. Sometimes, that might mean seven shutout innings like he had Monday in Milwaukee.

But either way, look for a 12-12(ish) year and a mid-4.00’s ERA from Kendrick across 30 starts and 180 innings. He won’t wow anybody, but he will keep the Rockies in enough games – and stay healthy and consistent enough, himself – to make things interesting and give the club the pitching depth and consistency they so desperately need.

Give us your predictions!

Comment below, find us on Facebook, or tweet us @RoxPileFS and let us know. You can also use the hashtag #RoxCrystalBall.