Charlie Blackmon Home Run Total – 24.5
This line may be a little easier to bet compared to Story as Blackmon’s contract makes it much more unlikely that he gets moved by the trade deadline so we have less factors to consider.
First, let’s look at how Blackmon performed last year. He lit the world on fire early in the season with a batting average that hovered over .400 for a decent amount of time, but it came crashing down in a parallel fashion with the Rockies’ regular season performance. However, he didn’t do it with much power.
He only hit six home runs in 2020. In a 162-game season, if we assumed he got 640 plate appearances (on the low end for a normal Charlie Blackmon season) then he would have hit about 16 homers. For a guy whose low point in the four prior seasons was 29, that’s a major drop off.
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As we dive further into the analytics, some stats pop out that either something was off last year or he may be beginning to regress. His Hard Hit Percentage, per Statcast, dropped from 40.3% to 29.7%. His Barrel Percentage dropped from 7.9% to 4.9%. Both of these contribute greatly to the next stat: His HR/FB% dropped from 17.7% to 9.5%. The last time Blackmon had a HR/FB% that low was in 2015 when he finished with 17 homers.
That should be a cause for concern going into the 2021 season in terms of this line. Without much change from his overall approach to the plate (as his BB% and K% stayed relatively similar), and without much change to his batted ball profile (his GB%, FB% and LD% are all fairly similar year to year), then it simply means we need to judge how well Chuck is season the ball and how hard he’s hitting it. With a clear drop last season, and another year behind him, we have to assume that it’s more likely that he’s regressing. He will probably be better than the 16 home runs he would’ve been projected to finish with in 2020, but I’m not certain he’ll be able to get 25 home runs based off the drop off last season.
I am recommending Charlie Blackmon Under 24.5 Home Runs (-115)