Just how many home runs will Colorado Rockies All-Star shortstop Trevor Story hit in 2021? If you think you have a crystal ball, let’s see if you’d bet over or under on this hypothetical number.
Thanks to our awesome contributor @SABRSkeptic and some great information always fed to us from BetOnline.ag, we’ve been much more in tune with some of the wagers out there when it comes to the Rockies upcoming season over the past few months. That includes some not-so-great chances from the oddsmakers on Colorado making the 2021 postseason.
But while there are plenty of betting opportunities out there about individual honors and team results, we didn’t find anything on the potential number of home runs that a player may hit during the upcoming season. So we did a little research and came up with a mythical home run line for Story and are asking you today if you’d take the over or under on this bet for the upcoming season.
Here is the fictitious over/under number for Trevor Story home runs in 2021.
Teaming up with @SABRSkeptic (and discussing some work he is doing for an upcoming article that is going to be awesome, by the way), we’re setting the non-existent home run line for Story in 2021 at 35.5. We’re basing that on Story’s past 162-game average of 36 homers as well as Steamer and ZIPS projections on FanGraphs that have him slugging between 33 and 35 this season.
Now, of course, there are some interesting things to take into account if you’re going to take the over or under.
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Of course, the “over” crowd is going to scream “COORS!” and point to Story’s career-high 37 homers in 2018, followed by 35 in 2019, and his 11 homers in 59 games last season that would have put him close to the line had the season played out at a 162-game pace.
But the “under” crowd is going to point to two things that we don’t know exactly if or how they will play out in 2021. That includes talk that the actual baseball may have physical changes to it this season which could limit how far it flies. There is also the discussion that Story could well be traded by the Rockies during the course of the season (a proposed trade to the Texas Rangers?), limiting the number of games he plays at altitude but also cutting down considerably on the physical toll that it takes for Rockies players to come and go from altitude. Could leaving Denver actually give a boost to Story? We’ve seen how DJ LeMahieu has flourished in a New York Yankees uniform, so it’s certainly possible.
So which would you take for 2021? Would you take Story hitting more or less than 35.5 homers in the season? Let us know in the comments section below or through our Twitter account.