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Colorado Rockies: Our prediction on when and if Nolan Arenado is traded

By Kevin Henry

Feb 19, 2020; Scottsdale, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) stands for a portrait on media day during spring training at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 19, 2020; Scottsdale, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) stands for a portrait on media day during spring training at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 06: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits a base hit to score Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies from third base during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 6, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

As has been the case for months now, there are trade rumors swirling about the status of Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. Here is our prediction on when and if Arenado is no longer a member of the Rockies.

Colorado Rockies fans have had to wonder about the future of Nolan Arenado in Denver since the start of this year. Long before COVID-19 and a shortened 2020 campaign, Arenado and trade rumors were making headlines.

With all of those rumors still floating around (let’s not forget the one about Arenado going to the Los Angeles Dodgers by Christmas, right?), there are some things to keep in mind when considering if and when the Rockies make a trade that sends Arenado away from Denver.

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First, Arenado has a much-discussed opt-out clause in his contract that kicks in after the 2021 season. At that time, if he is still a member of the Rockies, he has the option to walk away from that contract and sign wherever he likes. That’s a very unlikely situation, however, given the economic climate and Arenado’s big contract sets the bar for future ones signed in baseball. If that contract is suddenly gone, baseball’s future big contracts (beloved by the union and agents alike) suddenly don’t have as high of an average value.

While the opt-out clause is unlikely to be used by Arenado after the 2021 season, it’s still a big deal for teams who might be willing to try to trade for him. Those teams may get one season of Arenado before he could walk away, unless, of course, he reworks the contract with the new team and waives that opt-out clause.

That opt-out mystery is one of several reasons why Arenado won’t be traded before the 2021 season begins.

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