Colorado Rockies: Our prediction on when and if Nolan Arenado is traded

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LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 06: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies hits a base hit to score Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies from third base during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on September 6, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

As has been the case for months now, there are trade rumors swirling about the status of Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. Here is our prediction on when and if Arenado is no longer a member of the Rockies.

Colorado Rockies fans have had to wonder about the future of Nolan Arenado in Denver since the start of this year. Long before COVID-19 and a shortened 2020 campaign, Arenado and trade rumors were making headlines.

With all of those rumors still floating around (let’s not forget the one about Arenado going to the Los Angeles Dodgers by Christmas, right?), there are some things to keep in mind when considering if and when the Rockies make a trade that sends Arenado away from Denver.

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First, Arenado has a much-discussed opt-out clause in his contract that kicks in after the 2021 season. At that time, if he is still a member of the Rockies, he has the option to walk away from that contract and sign wherever he likes. That’s a very unlikely situation, however, given the economic climate and Arenado’s big contract sets the bar for future ones signed in baseball. If that contract is suddenly gone, baseball’s future big contracts (beloved by the union and agents alike) suddenly don’t have as high of an average value.

While the opt-out clause is unlikely to be used by Arenado after the 2021 season, it’s still a big deal for teams who might be willing to try to trade for him. Those teams may get one season of Arenado before he could walk away, unless, of course, he reworks the contract with the new team and waives that opt-out clause.

That opt-out mystery is one of several reasons why Arenado won’t be traded before the 2021 season begins.

Aug 4, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) is unable to field the ball in the eighth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

How about some other reasons? Well, to start, there’s the pandemic. With many teams looking to cut costs after a 2020 season where there were no fans in stands during the regular season, there simply aren’t a high number of available suitors willing to invest that kind of cash, especially with the start of the 2021 season still up in the air as Americans are just starting to have a COVID-19 vaccine become available.

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As part of the eight-year, $260 million contract that Arenado signed before the 2019 season, Arenado is due $35 million this season and every campaign through 2024. In an uncertain economic time, even with Arenado’s generational talents at third base, that’s a high price for another team to pay to have him wear their uniform.

There’s also the fact that Arenado is coming off his worst statistical season of his career at the plate. After a shoulder injury suffered in the second series of the campaign, Arenado never found his rhythm at the plate, slashing .253/.303/.434.

The timing of Arenado’s injury and dip in offensive production will likely raise eyebrows in any potential suitor inner circles. In a tough economic climate and with Arenado last seen on the diamond at less than full strength, will trade partners give the Rockies fair value? Likely not, further putting the breaks on any trade possibilities this winter.

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 31: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies makes a leaping throw to first base for the second out of the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on August 31, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

There are a number of factors coming together that seem to make an Arenado trade this offseason unlikely, including his contract, the economic results of the pandemic, and Arenado’s shoulder injury.

With all of this in mind, if the Rockies are going to trade Arenado, it would make more sense for the team (and potential trade partners) to see Arenado on the field to start the 2021 campaign. He’ll turn 30 on April 16 and any team wishing to sink a high amount of money into him and his future will want to ensure he can return to the level of hitting he displayed before 2020.

Knowing all of this, we predict that, as manager Bud Black echoed in his talk with the media earlier this week, Arenado will be at the hot corner for the Rockies when the 2021 season begins on April 1 at Coors Field against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. We also predict, however, that Arenado will be traded just before the 2021 trade deadline as Colorado works behind the scenes to sign Trevor Story (who has a contract expiring after the 2021 season) to a long-term deal.

We also predict that the Rockies will not trade Arenado within the division. Sorry, Dodgers fans, but it’s not going to happen.

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Another prediction: Don’t be surprised to see St. Louis as Arenado’s trade destination midway through the 2021 campaign, particularly if fans can be in attendance. If not, they may be more lukewarm on acquiring Arenado.

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As has been the case for months now, there are trade rumors swirling about the status of Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. Here is our prediction on when and if Arenado is no longer a member of the Rockies.

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