Colorado Rockies: Has Trevor Story rewritten club’s pecking order?

The days of the bat-first infielders with little-to-no athleticism has passed, at least for the Rockies.

The leaders of sports networks around the country owe a debt to both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Any station covering baseball has been gift-wrapped highlight reels on an annual basis by each.

I mean, come on:

Both players possess range ahead of their peers; an uncanny ability to pirouette across the infield on a ball to their left side and throw a dagger to first base and even the unique ability to launch over tarps and not suffering injuries.

Making a pick between the two is like choosing between ice cream and pizza. Both, please?

Nevertheless, there are differences between the two fielders.

This year, Arenado leads in both defensive runs saved and defensive wins above replacement. His reign as the Gold Glove recipient in the NL, as well as a run on Platinum Gloves seems to be off to a good start.

Last year, Story actually led the way for the team in defensive WAR. His speed and range have also enabled him to lead the way in outs above average (OAA) this year. He finished only one out behind Arenado last season.

A glance at Statcast’s catch difficulty scale also shows Arenado has made more difficult catches, compared to his peers, than Story.

Overall, the ease Arenado plays with at the hot corner is one-of-a-kind. There are several light-hitting shortstops in the league who are forced to lead with their glove. The number of third baseman who can’t hit and lead with their glove is miniscule.

A player hitting like Arenado, all while flashing the best glove in the league for his position, is too much to pass up.

Winner: Arenado

Rounding 15-inch squares around a major league field is important. Those who do it best are some of the league’s most elite players.

So many times, comparisons between two superstars come down to miniscule differences. The splitting hairs required to differentiate a pair of players causes controversy in droves.

In a perfect world, both Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado could slip on their specially designed Nike cleats and sprint from one spot to another in a foot race. Teal, purple, and black would take the place of the iconic red streaks left behind by The Flash.

Coors Field won’t be hosting such a race anytime soon, so metrics will have to do. As expected, it’s not necessarily close.

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Trevor Story is in the top five percent of all major leaguers in sprint speed (25th overall, according to Statcast). His sprint speed has dropped to 28.8 feet per second, and he still leaves Arenado’s 24.8 feet per second in the dust.

A stopwatch tells one chapter. Tangible results tell a similar tale.

In only four-plus seasons, Story has swiped 73 bases. The total includes 2017 in which he only had seven in 145 games. Rickey Henderson isn’t going to have his records shattered, but the numbers show the great sprint speed isn’t going to waste.

Arenado’s speed has produced different results. He’s garnered only 16 stolen bases since his debut in 2013. The oft-used comparisons between Mike Schmidt and Arenado are apt, but the former showcased an ability to steal bases simply not present in Arenado’s game.

Watch Arenado in the field and he’ll show range unlike many of even the league’s fastest third basemen. On the base paths, it’s not the same.

Winner: Story

Nothing can impact a team like a hitter smashing balls into the outfield grass and seats. Both guys do it well, but who does it better?

Before starting any conversation, it makes sense to lay ground rules.

Comparing two player’s careers is tough. Nolan Arenado got his start in 2013, while Trevor Story didn’t arrive until 2016. Comparing nearly any career hitting stat will favor the more tenured star.

The other factor is recent history. For a breakdown of which player is better right now, it doesn’t make sense to look at anything more than this season and last. Both players have posted elite numbers in the last two years, so it’s not merely cherry-picking.

Since the start of 2019, Arenado leads Story in home runs, runs batted in, hits, and all three figures included in the triple slash (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging). Immediately, the conclusion seems obvious … but context is key.

In the same span, Arenado has played nine more games, though it’s only resulted in six more plate appearances. The mere five hits and four home runs which separate the two players can be mostly discarded. The runs batted in can also be ignored given Story’s position in front, or directly behind Arenado in the lineup most games, as well as the inherit luck involved in driving in runs.

Colorado Rockies

The effectiveness of hits is a huge factor.

Last year, Arenado’s weight on-base average (wOBA) led Story by .012. This year, the equation has flipped with the shortstop holding a .064 lead. The weighted runs created (wRC+) stemming from those base hits favors Story this year, 130-88. Last year, it was flopped, 128-121.

Clearly, Story has produced at the plate much more than Arenado this year. Last year, the two were nearly equal, though it favored the third baseman.

Story would benefit from a lineup with him in a position to drive in runs. Arenado already has the benefit, thanks in part to Story’s ability to get on base, as well as wreak havoc on opposing catchers.

From a pure hitting standpoint, Story’s ability to avoid soft-hit balls (only 13.9 percent over his career; 9.5 percent this year) is crucial. Arenado has a career rate of 15.7 percent, including a lofty 21.3-percent mark this year. The younger star takes the battle between exit velocities too (91-or-higher both years compared to Arenado’s 89.5 and 87.6 averages).

Counting stats tend to point towards Arenado – he’s simply in a better spot to rack them up.

Nearly every number related to hitting the ball hard and producing extra-base hits points towards Story. The differences are only a hair though.

Winner: Story, but not by much

In a perfect world, each of the league’s general managers could have the luxury of building around two perennial All-Star and Most Valuable Player candidates. Jeff Bridich does, but one reigns supreme.

Rockies fans have been lucky.

Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki made up most of my early years watching the club. Now, it’s only Nolan Arenado And Trevor Story.

All four players showcase elite talent – the latter two are still rolling.

Due to recent turmoil organizationally, the Rockies could bid adieu to Arenado in the coming months. An offseason trade seems more likely than ever before, though mending fences would be the best option.

As shown in the Tulowitzki trade, as well as several other trades of superstar players (ahem, Mookie Betts), getting fair value for a player is hard. Garnering a package of players who will actually make a difference is even harder.

Trade rumors aside, the Rockies have the best infield, at least on the left side, of any club in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are on the rise. Javy Baez and Kris Bryant also represent an elite tandem.

For my money, Story and Arenado are the best combination of fielding, hitting, and consistency of the bunch.

Of the two, given his all-around game, the choice is simple to me.

Winner: Story