Trevor Story Player Props:
Batting Average Over/Under: .285 (-115)
RBI Over/Under: 37.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 12.5 (-115)
Story has been really, really good over the past two seasons and I don’t expect that to slow down any time soon. With a wRC+ over 120 in every season besides his sophomore slump in 2017, his hitting’s not going to drop off. Fangraphs has different ideas with their projections (expecting a wRC+ around 111), but I personally feel like that’s low given Story’s performance so far in his career.
He’s had back-to-back seasons with batting averages of .291 and .294. He also destroys everyone in the NL West not named the Dodgers, so we should expect that to continue in a season where your main opponents are divisional foes. He’d break this HR number in every year of his career besides 2017. But the RBI total is too high for me to consider. For a player worth just as much to the Rockies as Arenado, his betting lines are going to look similar:
Lines to take:
Batting Average: Over .285 (-115)
RBI Total: Under 37.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 12.5 (-115)
Ryan McMahon Player Props:
RBI Over/Under: 24.5 (-115)
Total HRs: 6.5 (-115)
We only get two lines for McMahon from BetOnline.ag to consider. The easiest one to consider is the HR total. In 2019, McMahon improved significantly in one main stat: HR/FB%. He hit 14.9% of all fly balls for HRs during the 1st half of the season last year and in the 2nd half that jumped to an incredible 40.5%. In all of 2019 only four qualified hitters had a HR/FB% above 30%, so that feels pretty significant for this line if McMahon performs any bit similarly.
Let’s put it another way. To hit 7 HRs and hit the over, Ryan McMahon would have to hit 18 fly balls if he keeps up his 40.5% HR/FB% he had in the second half last year. Seriously. That’s it. And if he hits it at his full 2019 average of 27.0%, then he’ll need to hit 26 fly balls. This doesn’t feel like it’s going to be tough to break whatsoever.
For the RBI total, Fangraphs projects anywhere between 24-27 RBI for McMahon. I’m an optimist and this could be a breakout season for McMahon where he gets more playing time at both 2B and 1B, so let’s hammer that Over because my gut is yelling, “Why not?” extremely loudly at me right now.
Lines to take:
RBI Total: Over 24.5 (-115)
Total HRs: Over 6.5 (-115)
David Dahl Player Props:
Total HRs: 9.5 (-115)
Only one line for our favorite Dahl Star? That’s a shame. And unfortunately this is a pretty tough line given Dahl’s past seasons. For instance, in 2016 he hit 7 HRs in 63 games. A clear under. But then in 2018 he blasted 15 HRs in 77 games. Clearly that trends towards the over. And in 2019 he hit 15 in 100 games, which skews us towards the under.
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And Fangraphs is only assuming he’ll get around 210 plate appearances this season, which equates to about 48 games. If he performs at 2017 and 2019 rates then that’s a clear under. If he performs like he did in 2018 then he’d hit around 13 HRs. I do believe he’ll play in more than 48 games, given he stays healthy, but I’m not sure if that’s enough.
If we break down his splits in 2019, Dahl hit 9 HRs at Coors in 210 Plate Appearances. He hit 6 HRs on the road in 203 Plate Appearances. Assuming Dahl hits for a similar wRC+ around 110, then I have to assume these power numbers will look similar. Dahl’s going to continue to hit for extra bases, but I’m feeling like 10 HRs may be a tough number for him to break. I’d love to be wrong but it’s hard for me to take the over here.
Lines to Take:
Total HRs: Under 9.5 (-115)