Colorado Rockies: Our staff season projections and bold predictions

Spring training is officially underway and we are one day closer to the Colorado Rockies 2020 season opener on March 26 in San Diego against the Padres.

Of course, I don’t need to catch you up on everything that has (Nolan Arenado vs. Jeff Bridich) and hasn’t (spending zero dollars on acquisitions, going the distance in arbitration with Tony Wolters, etc.) happened this offseason. While there has been little to talk about in terms of new faces or free agency, there has been plenty of analysis on why a franchise coming off a 71-91 mark believes it can absolutely turn things around in 2020.

What about you? Do you believe the Rockies can turn it around? That’s the question I asked to Rox Pile’s team of writers.

I asked each of our writers to give me (and subsequently, you) his projection for the upcoming season and also why he is picking the record he chose. I also asked each of the writers to give me one bold prediction for the upcoming season.

Since I asked each of Rox Pile’s writers to go out on a limb, it’s only fair I step out there first.

This year, I am predicting the Rockies will go 79-83. It’s an improvement over last year but will still feel like a disappointing season with all of the talent on this team.

So why a losing record? At this moment, I don’t have much faith at all that the back end of the rotation can be a strength or that a much-maligned trio of relievers (Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw) will bounce back from their poor showings last year. They may, as a unit, fare better than last season … but that’s not saying much.

Yes, I believe pitching will be the downfall of this team in 2020. I have faith that German Marquez will improve and Jon Gray will take the next step in his development. I also believe that Kyle Freeland will fall somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 numbers. After that, outside of a hopeful continuation of Chi Chi Gonzalez‘s September surge, I don’t know that I can say with a lot of confidence this team can get outs on a consistent basis in the opening and middle parts of the game.

My bold prediction? Jairo Diaz will develop into the Colorado closer as Davis falters early in the season. Scott Oberg will transition back into becoming the set-up man and will find success in that role. The duo will become a formidable one-two punch when the Rockies can hand them a late lead.

Ben Macaluso (@Ben_Macaluso)

Last year, I had a prediction that the Rockies would regress after their first back-to-back trips to the postseason. A bold prediction last year would have been to predict that the Rockies would backslide 20 games. I predicted they would be around .500 and maybe the record was around 83-79.

That number feels about right this year. They made zero significant changes and The Athletic ranked Colorado’s offseason only better than the Astros and Red Sox.

More from Rox Pile

• A Colorado Rockies Thanksgiving
• Colorado Rockies: What if Todd Helton had played football instead?
• Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon out for the season
• Colorado Rockies: Injuries shift look of roster ahead of Dodgers series
• Colorado Rockies: Has Sean Bouchard earned a second look in 2023?

I still think that the team wasn’t as bad as their record indicated in 2019. They had some brutal stretches, especially in April and July, but showed they could come together and rebound in September even when there was nothing to play for. I think that shows the true character of this team and they can rally much earlier and benefit from a few breaks this year.

I also think the pitching can’t be nearly as bad as last year and they find some of their groove back. Getting an even average Kyle Freeland this year will improve their record. My less than bold prediction is similar to last year that they will finish just under .500 at 80-82.

My bold prediction for the season doesn’t involve Nolan Arenado. It is seemingly less and less likely he will be with the club for the entire season and I predict a trade to happen at the end of July.

My “shoot for the stars” prediction is that Ian Desmond and Daniel Murphy will both finish with one win above replacement.

Murphy at least had a positive WAR at 0.2 last season but never really fully recovered from an early season fluke fractured finger injury. Before his 2018 and 2019 seasons, he had never finished below 1.0. Look for him to rebound this season.

Now seeing Desmond even with a positive WAR this year would be a substantial upgrade. Every year he has been in Denver, he has finished with a negative WAR (with his worst season coming last year). I predict this positive WAR will come with a changed mindset of his role with the team. Desmond is a tremendous presence in the clubhouse and, if he can become even more of a mentor coming off the bench and being a platoon player, he could benefit with less playing time.

That may be a stretch but these are bold predictions. Something has to change, right? That just might be the motto for the entire 2020 season.

Luke Mullins

The 2020 season might be the hardest Rockies season to predict in perhaps a decade. On one hand, the team lost 91 games last year. However, it could be argued that the team that lost those games was not an accurate reflection of the talent on the roster. Injuries, substandard performances, and the loss of all five members of the starting rotation sank a Colorado club many believed was a potential championship contender a year ago.

So was 2019 an anomaly or the beginning of the end? From where we stand a little over a month away from the opening pitch of 2020, the best we can do is guess. The Rockies have the talent on their roster to be a very good team if that talent can live up to its potential.

That’s not to say there aren’t still holes on this roster. The rotation in particular is a pretty big question mark. But if the results follow the talent that we know is there — Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Jon Gray can be dominant pitchers at the Major League level — this team has the chance to surprise some people.

Colorado Rockies

I could honestly see this team winning 90 games or losing 90 games in 2020 and the deciding factor will be a couple of bounce-back performances from some key players. But spring training is all about optimism so I’ll lean toward that position and project the Rockies finishing 88-74 in 2020.

Bold prediction: The Rockies will have a new superstar by the end of the 2020 season.

Regardless of the team’s record, the Rockies have always found a way to hit. Even if the club struggles, 2020 will bring a new superstar to 20th and Blake.

Much like Trevor Story’s breakout campaign in 2016, one of the Rockies’ young position players is poised to burst onto the scene this summer. Whether it’s Ryan McMahon building off a strong 2019, or Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard, or Raimel Tapia securing an everyday role, or Brendan Rodgers finally showing fans what all the hype was about, there will be a new jersey climbing up the Rockies’ top-sellers list.

Aaron Hurt (@FlatlandRockies)

The Rockies enter spring training with the highest of expectations heading into the 2020 season. With owner Dick Monfort making the prediction of 94 victories, confidence is running at an all-time high after all of the roster upgrades that were made over the winter (sarcasm) … or the term “high” might be the optimal term for how Monfort is thinking.

I see this upcoming season going one of two ways. The first is in the line of Monfort. The stars could align and practically the same team that won 71 games in 2019 could see a bounce-back season. The Rockies could get close to Monfort’s prediction with rebound seasons from Kyle Freeland, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and so on and so forth. Add in a determined Nolan Arenado, an emergence from an unknown backup catcher and a couple of the younger players having career years, the Rockies could get to 90+ wins.

The second and much more likely way this season could go is depressing. The rift between Arenado and the front office is so great that it casts a huge shadow and the Rockies fall out of contention early. This leads to the “inevitable” trade of Arenado but the Rockies don’t stop there. They go into fire sale mode trading any quality player they have in order to replenish their depleted farm system. The Rockies look to move Trevor Story, Jon Gray, and Charlie Blackmon, which opens up even more payroll for next season as the Rockies go into a complete rebuild.

As much as I would love to see the Rockies get close to Monfort’s prediction, I fear that the record will be the inverse. The Rockies win 68 and lose 94 games.

Bold Prediction

I have eluded to this in a couple of articles this offseason but Ryan McMahon will have a breakout season. I am predicting he will make the All-Star Game and hit .282 with 34 home runs and 92 RBI. The increase in production will come from not being in a platoon role at second as he was to begin the 2019 season, which will include more at-bats against left-handed pitching.

McMahon will also benefit from a move into the heart of the order once Arenado is traded in the middle of the season. McMahon will then take over as the everyday third baseman which will make room for Brendan Rodgers at second.

Noah Yingling (@NoahYingling)

As you probably know by now, the Colorado Rockies have not done a thing involving Major League free agents this offseason or pulled off a single trade. They finished 71-91 last season and they had just about everything go wrong. Daniel Murphy, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, Jon Gray, David Dahl, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland all had injuries that sidelined them for a while. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw didn’t pitch well (again, in the case of the latter two). Kyle Freeland also regressed more than anybody could have imagined.

So a lot of things went wrong for them to go 71-91. If they are healthy, they are not going to be a 71-91 team … unless Nolan Arenado is traded during the season.

That’s been the main thing this offseason: If (and/or when) will Nolan Arenado be traded? It obviously wasn’t something that anybody would have thought we’d be talking about when he signed his extension last February but, alas, here we are. I tend to believe the reports from reputable sources (e.g. Ken Rosenthal) that an Arenado trade is “inevitable.” I do know that there is a rift between Arenado and the Rockies front office and if the Rockies are at or below .500 around Memorial Day or so, the Rockies will likely trade him.

I think that, based off of what I’ve seen, the Rockies will need too many people to bounce back and do not have enough pitching to sustain a team that will be in contention. Also, outside of Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, and (a healthy) David Dahl, the Rockies have a very shaky offense. Again, as I’ve said before and have many others, the Rockies do not have a core problem; their problem is that they don’t have enough secondary talent to assist the core that they have.

Bottom line: Do I think the Colorado Rockies will win 94 games like Dick Monfort had an analytics team “interpolate?” No. Do I think that the Colorado Rockies are as bad as they were in 2019? No. Do I think that they are as good as they were in 2017 or 2018? No. Are they a playoff team as they currently constructed? No.

Record: 77-85, 4th place

Bold Prediction: Nolan Arenado will be traded before July 1st.