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Colorado Rockies: Our staff season projections and bold predictions

ByKevin Henry|
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his solo homerun with Ryan McMahon #24, to take a 1-0 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers, during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 23: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his solo homerun with Ryan McMahon #24, to take a 1-0 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers, during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on June 23, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 17: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies follows the flight of a second inning two-run homer against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on August 17, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Kevin Larson (@SABRSkeptic)

In December, I looked at the Rockies and said that they would finish the season with 84 wins in 2020. Nothing has changed with the roster since then, but I find myself feeling less and less certain about that win total. Maybe I’m just down on the front office’s “strategy” this offseason (and the Nolan rumors getting cranked to 100), but I’m reeling it back.

I’m amending my prediction to 80 wins. That should be good for fourth in the NL West behind the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres. Each of these three teams decided that making moves to improve the roster was a strategy worth pursuing.

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Meanwhile, FanGraphs projects the Rockies and their nearly identical roster to finish with a total of 27.6 fWAR. All you need to know is that only the Giants and Marlins are projected to finish with less fWAR in 2020. And these are with current rosters, never mind the fact that Arenado likely isn’t with this team past the July trade deadline if they can’t compete early. Their inactivity is going to cost them, even with a rebound from last season.

Bold prediction: Trevor Story will finish with a higher WAR than Nolan Arenado.

Don’t look now, but Story has slowly started to prove himself as potentially more worthy to the Rockies than Arenado. Over the past two seasons, Story has seen increases in both his fWAR (5.1 to 5.8) and bWAR (5.6 to 6.4). He was just behind Nolan in fWAR and surpassed him in bWAR. Arenado has been consistent the past few years, but Story has shown improvement after his sophomore slump in 2017 and should continue to improve.

Regardless of where Arenado finishes the season, Story will finish with both a higher fWAR and bWAR and be more worthy to the Rockies in 2020.

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