Evaluating the rumored St. Louis Cardinals-Nolan Arenado trade package

Carlos Martinez – Pitcher

Carlos Martinez (RHP) comes in with seven seasons of Major League experience under his belt. He’s bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen throughout his career with the Cardinals using him most recently in the latter. He’s battled injuries the past two seasons but has came back strong as their closer last season. He has two years left on his contract and is owed $11.5M per season with two club options set for 2022 and 2023 (his salary would raise up to $17M and $18M in each season respectively).

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In 2019, he accumulated 1.2 fWAR in 48.1 IP. That may not seem very impressive initially. However, when looking at it from a WAR/IP perspective 2019 was actually his most productive season.

By Park Adjusted stats, he’s posted up some pretty decent numbers over the past three seasons in terms of ERA- (87, 90 and 75) and FIP- (93, 89 and 66). His 2019 ERA- of 75 would’ve ranked third in the Rockies bullpen (among relievers who threw at least 40 innings) behind Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez while his FIP- of 66 would’ve ranked him first. His FIP of 2.86 and xFIP of 3.76 would’ve also both been best in the Rockies bullpen in 2019.

One area of concern would be that each season his Hard Hit Percentage has risen, growing to 38.1% in 2019. That percentage would put him right in the middle of where Rockies relievers currently are. Martinez has balanced that out, though, by lowering his HR/FB% from 16.4% in 2017 to 4.9% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019. No Rockies reliever was below 10% last season (Oberg was best at 11.6%).

If the idea is to keep Martinez in the bullpen once he comes to the Rockies then I think it’d be a welcome addition. He could easily be slotted as the primary eighth inning guy or even his current role of closer (dependent on where you see Oberg fitting best). The Rockies need bullpen arms and his four pitch mix would play well at Coors and he doesn’t rely on many breaking pitches.

With two years remaining on his contract at $11.5M per season, he’d be a nice boost to the bullpen. The team options in 2022 and 2023 put his salary at what’s likely too high of a salary to consider ($17M in 2022, or Wade Davis‘ current pay). The $11.5M would make him the second-highest paid reliever, but if he performs at a level where his park adjusted stats stay similar then it’d be somewhat worth it for the Rockies.

Dakota Hudson

Hudson is a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher with just over a year of Major League experience. He pitched 174.2 innings last season and had a 16-7 record. It led to him accumulating an fWAR of 1.0 with an ERA of 3.35.

On the outside, that ERA looks appealing and his ERA- of 79 looks pretty good as well. However, that’s balanced out with an FIP of 4.93 and an FIP- of 114. That FIP- is similar to Antonio Senzatela‘s (116).

His BB% in 2019 was 11.4% and his K% was 18.0%. That BB% would be the highest in the Rockies rotation among starters with at least 60 IP and that K% would rank fourth behind Marquez, Gray and Hoffman. He did post a high 56.9% GB%, which would be the highest on the Rockies (just edging out Senzatela’s 53.8%). His Hard Hit Percentage of 40.5% would sandwich him between Freeland and Hoffman as the highest of the Rockies starters last season.

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We shouldn’t be terribly harsh on Hudson, though, because that was his rookie season as there will be room for improvement in certain areas. We need to consider future value as well. Per FanGraphs, Hudson’s topped out on his fastball (rated at a 70), slider (rated at 55) and cutter (also at 55). He has room for improvement on his command (currently 40/45). And for his Future Value, Fangraphs has him rated at a 45 (50 is the rating for an average ball player).

For reference, Peter Lambert‘s current Future Value is at a 50.

Based off this, Hudson seems to fit in near the back end of a rotation. He did have a bit of success with the Cardinals in terms of his Win-Loss record, but as we know now pitcher wins aren’t everything. With more things to work on, it may be tough putting him into an environment like Coors Field as he tries to improve on some of his statistics that need work, such as his HR/FB%. Last season it sat at 19.8% while in the minors it was at 6.7% in AA in 2017 and 1.3% in AAA in 2018.

Hudson may be a risk to try to develop further at Coors Field and his success in a Rockies rotation would seem to be a wild card. However, the Rockies (and any team really) are always going to be in the market for needing young controllable starting pitchers. It’s just whether this moves the needle enough or not.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is another young player (24 years old) with just over a year of big league experience. He’s a right-handed outfielder with a bunch of power who strikes out a ton, which draws a lot of comparisons to Joey Gallo. Per Statcast, as a hitter he also profiles fairly closely to Eric Thames.

In 2018, he posted a 116 wRC+ in 142 PAs, but that dropped to 91 in 2019 in 151 PAs. While that’s a big drop, his wRC+ would still have ranked fifth among all Rockies hitters with at least 100 PAs (just above Ryan McMahon at 88). He accumulated 1.3 fWAR in 2019 and sat right at 0.0 in 2019.

He hits the ball very hard and at a pretty high clip (46.6%). His Soft/Medium/Hard Hit line in 2019 was 17.0%/36.4%/46.6%, which reads fairly similar to Chris Iannetta in 2019 (14.3%/38.5%/47.3%). He had a HR/FB% of 25.0% in 2018 but that dropped to 14.3% in 2019.

His BABIP is pretty high as well (.386 in 2019), which is to be expected for a guy who hits for a ton of power and has great sprint speed.

As a fielder, O’Neill had a pretty good 2018 but struggled a lot more in 2019. His UZR/150 in 2018 was 24.1, which easily would’ve made him the best outfielder for the Rockies in 2019. However, in 2019 his UZR/150 dropped to -10.3. That’s only slightly better that Charlie Blackmon‘s 2019 (-10.7) and much has been made of Blackmon’s defensive struggles.

In terms of Future Value, O’Neill is rated at a 50. FanGraphs projects him to have a wRC+ of 94 and an fWAR between 0.7 and 0.9 (dependent on their projection methods).

He would certainly be an interesting player at Coors and his homers would surely get fans out of their seats. But does he fill a need? A consistently reported need for the Rockies is a young outfielder, but there’s already a logjam with Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia and Garrett Hampson likely to compete for time in the outfield. That’s without considering the time that Ian Desmond is likely to take alongside Dahl and Blackmon. Adding another bat may complicate things more. But if the Rockies view it as a need then this go big or go home type prospect would certainly be quite the mix of interesting and frustrating.

Matthew Liberatore

Liberatore is a left-handed pitcher who is 20 years old and most recently completed the season in Single-A ball for the Tampa Bay Rays. He was acquired by the Cardinals last week and speculation of him being repackaged as part of an Arenado deal immediately began. The former first rounder posted an ERA of 3.10 and an FIP of 3.18 in Single-A with the Rays’ Bowling Green Hot Rods.

His fastball can reach up to 95 mph and “plays above its velocity because it’s deceptive,” per his MLB Scouting Report from Statcast. He’s currently the Cardinals’ #3 prospect and ranks #41 overall. His future value rates out at a 55 in that same scouting report.

His pitch mix also includes an effective slider and a diving changeup, which figure to eventually rate around 50 and 55 respectively. That three pitch mix is certainly one that can play well at Coors Field, especially coming from a lefty who can hit 95. We obviously wouldn’t see him in the Majors for at least a couple seasons. However, if developed properly, he could bring the Rockies a good bit of value in their rotation.

If given the proper time in the minors and no injury issues pop up, Liberatore would make for a fine addition to the Rockies’ rotation some day. His future value suggests that his ceiling isn’t tremendously high but that he would still be a good boost to the rotation. If his three-pitch mix didn’t work as a starter, he could provide value in the bullpen.

So is the trade package worth it?

In my opinion, no.

It falls a little short due to current questions around Hudson and O’Neill even though you’d be shedding quite a bit of salary. While Martinez brings you good current Major League value, we’ve seen previously dominant relief pitchers come in a fail dramatically (oh hi Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw). The two seasons of control are probably fitting (especially since the Cardinals could “only” get two seasons of Arenado) but if the Rockies aren’t aiming to compete in those two seasons, then his $11.5M salary is not as worth it.

In regards to Hudson and O’Neill, there are too many question marks around each. Hudson had a pretty good 2019 but his peripheral numbers suggest he may have had some good fortune (and his park adjusted stats don’t seem all too impressive for Coors). And O’Neill seems like such an extreme hitter that still needs a bit of fine-tuning. Both would fit in better if the idea is to rebuild, but if they still feel that they’re competitive after a Nolan trade, then this doesn’t make as much sense.

Liberatore is the main piece that would make this trade worth it as it would give you a really good pitcher who can start to provide you some value in 2022 and 2023 (given proper acceleration through the minors).

The current package banks on too much hope and depends too much on Colorado’s current state of mind and whether they’ll still aim to compete in the next two seasons or if they want to rebuild. If an outfielder is to come in a deal with the Cardinals (as is apparently a reported need), then someone like Harrison Bader makes more sense than O’Neill as his improved defensive skills in 2019 would be better at Coors than O’Neill’s boom or bust power. A deal with the Cardinals would also likely need to include 3B Nolan Gorman (No. 38 overall prospect in MLB).

While this package feels light, it gives us an idea of what teams may give up for Arenado. Any trade package for Arenado is going to feel underwhelming from the Rockies perspective, but we’ll have to wait and see if this is going to be the type of trade package we can expect in any trade talks.