Who will (and who should/could) be the Colorado Rockies closer

The Davis possibility

There are arguments for why either pitcher (Oberg or Davis) could win the closer’s role. The Davis argument hinges on the idea that his 2019 was so bad that it must have been a fluke. Don’t forget, he’s been pretty darn reliable for most of his career and is still only one season removed from leading the National League while setting the team record in saves.

Davis’s decline maps pretty closely onto an oblique injury that he suffered in May. He actually started out the year phenomenally, going 7-for-7 in save chances with a 2.45 ERA before he went on the injured list. After his return, however, things did not go so smoothly.

Davis’s post-injury numbers are almost too horrific to print, yet here we go: 0-5 record with an 11.89 ERA. This includes unsustainable marks of 6.1 BB/9 and 2.2 HR/9 and a gaudy opponent’s slash line of .325/.426/567. In short, Davis turned every hitter he faced into Anthony Rendon. That’s not good.

Perhaps an offseason to get healthy and re-focus is what Davis needs in order to recover his former effectiveness. This would certainly be the best-case scenario for the Rockies, especially given how much of the team’s payroll Davis eats.

Davis will make $17M next season, and – fair or not – that may play a role in him getting a shot to earn the closer’s job back. That amount is a lot for just another arm out of the bullpen and team management would love it if he could return anything even halfway approaching that investment.

Part of the equation may also be a clause in his contract that gives Davis a $15M player option for 2021 if he finishes 30 or more games. The Rox may not want to be on the hook for that much money with a guy who just posted an 8.65 ERA, though one might also argue that Davis finishing 30 games implies that he’s taken the closer’s role back over, which then could theoretically make the $15M worth it. Theoretically.

The Oberg option

You could also argue that the closer’s job should go to the pitcher that pitched the best. Radical, I know.

Oberg was unquestionably Colorado’s best reliever last year, and may have even been their best pitcher overall. He led the team in ERA (2.25), ERA+ (232), FIP (3.54), WHIP (1.107), H/9 (6.3), and HR/9 (0.8).

This was good enough for the team to offer the 29-year-old a new three-year, $13M contract. While hardly the massive haul that the Rox had to offer in order to lure Davis to Denver, it does seem to signal a certain amount of faith in the right-hander.

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Black mentioned in his press conference that Oberg is in a “really good spot physically” and that “the doctors are extremely happy with where he is.” While Black did not say so explicitly, Oberg is thought to be on track for Spring Training. Black did not mention the specific role that he’ll be filling, calling Oberg “the right kind of guy” and “organizationally a good fit,” which could be interpreted a number of different ways.

It seems that Oberg is a closing option, but that he is far from guaranteed the job. You could even make a case that the Rockies would be a better team with Oberg as a high-leverage any-inning reliever (a la 2016 Andrew Miller) and with Davis as a traditional ninth inning-only guy. This would allow the team to get more value from Oberg overall while still justifying (somewhat) Davis’ price tag.

Black has shown a preference for using a traditional closer model in the past, so maybe he would be open to this kind of arrangement. On the other hand, traditionalists also tend to prefer that the ninth-inning guy is the best guy, so Oberg may have the inside edge on Davis as of right now.

The long shot

For all the talk about Davis and Oberg, one could make the case that the pitcher who actually holds the job is Jairo Diaz. Diaz, after all, is the guy who got five of the team’s last seven saves.

Diaz had a solid enough 2019, with a seemingly pedestrian 4.53 ERA, but strong peripherals like a 3.70 FIP and 19/63 BB/K in his 57.2 innings. He’s unlikely to retain that role if all other players are healthy, but there are multiple timelines out there where 2020 ends with Diaz as the guy with the most total saves for the Rox.

So who’s the guy in 2020?

The Rox have sunk way too much money into this bullpen for it to be as bad as it was in 2019. Whether it’s Davis that gets the job, or Oberg, Diaz, Carlos Estevez, Bryan Shaw, Jesus Tinoco, or the ghost of Jose Jimenez, if the Rockies are going to return to the playoffs in 2020, they need to do a better job of locking down close games than they did in 2019. Too many wins slipped from Colorado’s grasp in the final innings last year, especially for a scrappy team like the Rockies that can’t afford to paper over bullpen holes like some of the bigger market teams out there.

Ultimately, I believe Bud Black when he says that he’s going to let things play out. I expect a closer battle in spring training with the job going to whoever Black decides pitched best. The Rockies may be best off if Davis wins the traditional role, though that does require a significant return to form from the ex-closer.

Oberg is the better pitcher at this point in their respective careers. However, regardless of their roles, the team is better off with both men pitching well. This may not be the only fix that the Rockies need to make in order to return to contender status, but they certainly won’t be getting back there if it isn’t resolved.