How lucky are Colorado Rockies hitters actually getting?

By Kevin Larson | Sep 22, 2019

DENVER, CO - JULY 15: Ryan McMahon #24 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a seventh inning solo homer against the San Francisco Giants during game one of a doubleheader at Coors Field on July 15, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

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Ryan McMahon: Somewhat Lucky

McMahon is a strange case when you breakdown the numbers. He’s certainly not a guy who’s getting lucky because of Coors Field (wOBA vs xwOBA gap of 13 points). It’s much more about how he’s gotten there.

His Soft/Medium/Hard % slash line is really solid (14.3% soft, 40.9% medium, 44.9% hard). That Hard Hit Percentage leads the Rockies and is well above the league average of 38.0%. However, his Line Drive/Ground Ball/Fly Ball percentage tells a strikingly different story. His LD% is 20.7%, GB% is 50.8% and FB% is 28.4%. That GB% is higher than Ian Desmond’s and his Barrel per PA% is lower than league average at 5.3%.

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The stat that really stands out, though? His HR/FB% sits at 25.9%. That’s the same percentage as Mike Trout and just below players like Gary Sanchez and Max Muncy. If McMahon can lower that GB% and get more balls in the air then he’d be extremely solid. However, he’s still got some work to do until then.

He’s hitting the ball harder and more consistent than he has in his career. Maybe that’s a sign of things to come in the future, but we should expect some regression. We also shouldn’t continue to expect his HR/FB% to stay above 25% (he only has one other season in the bigs and the minors, excluding rookie ball, where that percentage was higher than 20%). He’s made some great strides, but he’s also been a little lucky in how he’s gotten there.

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