Colorado Rockies extend Nolan Arenado, championship window

On Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies locked down their superstar 27-year-old Nolan Arenado through the 2026 season on a deal worth $260 million. The seventh-year Rockies third baseman became the highest paid position player in baseball when he signed.

For the first time in franchise history, the Colorado Rockies are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances. The Rockies have rewarded their players and fans by spending the 11th-highest amount of any team in baseball and keeping their players more or less locked up for the next two seasons.

Of course, the Rockies have seen some stars depart, particularly this winter for New York. Nevertheless, the two most significant players from this run (Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado) are guaranteed nearly $55 million a year through 2021. Now, in most sports, this is the price of winning … players become more expensive and teams have trouble retaining them. In baseball, there is no salary cap (theoretically) and Colorado’s willingness to pay their most important figures is a significant investment from a mid-market ownership that is determined to win.

While many may quarrel with how the Rockies have spent their money and if or how it has hamstrung them already through this contention window, the step they took in extending Arenado extends their championship window … and may open up a second one.

Colorado’s core will remain together through 2021 when Trevor Story becomes a free agent then Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and Jon Gray the next winter. Not coincidently, Arenado has a player opt-out following the 2021 season. This is actually a benefit to both sides.

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Arenado has this opt-out for two reasons. One, to make sure the Rockies stay competitive. Two, to not miss out on money if there are significant changes to the market after the next collective bargaining agreement is signed the same winter Arenado would become a free agent (should he chose to opt-out).

Most likely though, Arenado will join one of his mentors, Todd Helton, as an iconic Denver ballplayer. Already the fourth-best player in Rockies history by rWAR, there’s no need to tell how good he is … but why not do it? He’s seventh in franchise history in OPS, home runs and RBI, ninth in games played and second in defensive WAR.

Arenado’s no-trade clause backs the thought his home will forever be 20th and Blake. Both because he doesn’t want to get traded and because his value compared to contract plus the leverage the Rockies lose with a no-trade clause makes him nearly impossible to deal.

The deal will likely hamstring Colorado’s ability to pay somebody at some point and it’s quite plausible that years seven and eight of this deal have a significantly diminished Arenado … but such is the price of doing business. Given the Rockies are set to sign a new TV deal soon and the fact that Arenado will command about 25 percent of it, the new deal which will begin in 2021 will help the Rockies bail themselves out of a financial jam.

See that 2021 year that keeps coming up? Yeah, the Rockies have a ton of flexibility to keep the band together, sign players like Story and Freeland long-term or blow it up at that benchmark and make a second run around a late-career Arenado (like the Rox did with Helton) in 2024 or so.

Basically, you pray Arenado is worth the contract in six of the eight years and it will be up to Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich to continue to build a very reputable farm system, make shrewd moves and spend wisely.

But stop the surplus value and what about seven years talk for a second.

Like signing Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy and more, this is a win-now move. And with the Rockies having a deep collection of young position players and pitchers ready to impact in 2019, 2020 opens up as a year that might be the most special in Colorado baseball history.

Nobody leaves plus Brendan Rodgers and experience is gained. It’s pretty clear to see why 2020 could finish with a crown.

I’m not sure that Arenado is the guy to lead the Rockies to October dominance, or that a model of paying four players $87 million can be successful in a mid-market, but this is not a shot in the dark or a loyalty move.

This was doing what was right by the fans, organization and its players. Maybe that, in today’s day of spreadsheet baseball, a literal heartfelt move, can tip the scales.

What’s true today and has remained true since the beginning of the 2016 season is this: The Colorado Rockies have never been in a better spot as a franchise than they are right now.

What does $260 million buy you? Your fans trust, a national spotlight and at least a three-year contention window that may balloon into the sustainable success the front office is always talking about.

Editor’s Note: Check out Jake’s podcast for additional thoughts on the Nolan Arenado signing and what it means for the franchise by clicking here.