Colorado Rockies: The honest truth about Nolan Arenado and his future

There is a lot being written on our site, other sites and on social media about what the future will hold for Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. To be perfectly honest, none of us know in the media what will happen after this season … and none of us know exactly what (if any) impact this offseason has had on in his future in Colorado.

In case you’ve been living in a cave somewhere and just emerged, this is the last season that the Colorado Rockies are guaranteed to have Nolan Arenado on the hot corner. Once the 2019 season concludes, Arenado could well test free agency and see if another team in a bigger market (yep, we’re talking about Los Angeles or New York, more than likely) will lure the annual Gold Glove winner at third base away from Denver.

There are a ton of “ifs” that go into that last paragraph, however. From those “ifs,” three potential scenarios occur.

One, the Rockies could come to an agreement with Arenado on an extension before the season begins. It’s very possible, considering it’s a similar path that Charlie Blackmon traveled before inking a deal with Colorado before last season began.

Two, the Rockies could crater this season, fall out of the playoff race and trade Arenado at the All-Star break. That’s very, very unlikely to happen … but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Three, Arenado could sign a contract midway through the season to cement his place in Colorado for years to come. It’s improbable though as Arenado will likely want to focus on baseball once the season begins but, again, it’s not impossible.

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What we are seeing with Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and many other Major League Baseball free agents is that there aren’t a lot of big, long-term deals being signed. The precedent could push Arenado to take the “safe bet” and re-sign with the Rockies if they offer him a deal anywhere in the neighborhood he is considering.

If he stays, Arenado can go down in franchise history as one of if not the best player to ever don a Rockies uniform. If he leaves, he will get a well-deserved video tribute on his first return to Coors Field and an ovation worthy of one of Colorado’s favorite players.

But do any of these scenarios have anything to do with the recent squabbling over salary heading into the 2019 season? No. Both sides have “thick skin” and know this is about business. Arenado said as much in a recent interview. Coming together on a $26 million deal versus a $24 million or $30 million deal doesn’t give leverage to anyone or leave a bad taste in anyone’s mouth. It’s a business decision and sets no precedent moving forward.

Don’t try to read anything into the past, including what has happened these last few weeks. Nolan Arenado is a special talent who deserves his payday, whether it’s in Colorado or elsewhere. He will get that payday, one way or the other. He knows this and so does general manager Jeff Bridich. That’s one of the few things we can say for sure about the future of Arenado.

You know what truly matters when it comes to Arenado sticking around? It boils down to two things: Can the Rockies consistently provide the winning environment that Arenado craves and can the franchise meet his price tag and desire for a long-term, lucrative deal? If the answer to either of those questions is no, cue up that tribute video for the 2020 season.