What Adam Ottavino’s signing means for the Yankees and Rockies

DENVER, CO - JUNE 19: Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the New York Mets in the seventh inning of a game at Coors Field on June 19, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JUNE 19: Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the New York Mets in the seventh inning of a game at Coors Field on June 19, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
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PHOENIX, AZ – MARCH 29: Relief pitcher Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the opening day MLB game at Chase Field on March 29, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ – MARCH 29: Relief pitcher Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the opening day MLB game at Chase Field on March 29, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Another day, another former Colorado Rockies player exchanging his purple pinstripes for navy blue ones. The Athletic’s Robert Murray reported late Thursday morning that Adam Ottavino has signed with the New York Yankees, and Ken Rosenthal provided the terms: Three years and $27 million.

Those terms should look awfully familiar to Colorado Rockies fans. Both Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee received contracts last offseason identical to what New York gave Adam Ottavino.

At face value, that theoretically should have been doable for the Rockies front office to bring “Otto” back. With more than $100 million currently committed to Shaw, McGee and closer Wade Davis, and taking into account the fact that we still don’t know what’s going to happen with Nolan Arenado, though, the Rockies apparently balked at dishing out a third $27 million deal to a reliever over 30 years old.

The Denver Post‘s Patrick Saunders later reported that the Rockies never gave Ottavino an offer.

Ottavino bolsters an already terrifying New York bullpen, as he’ll be joining the likes of Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Zach Britton, among others. Name a stat, and they’ll probably be in the top-10, if not top-5, in baseball. Yankees relievers compiled a 3.38 ERA in 594.2 innings, which was the fourth-best mark in baseball, behind the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics.

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By fWAR? There was no bullpen more valuable than the Yankees’ mark of 9.7, a full win better than the second-best Padres’ 8.7. Fangraphs also records an advanced stat called ERA-. What ERA- does is tell you how much better a pitcher or a pitching staff pitched relative to league-average. It’s essentially park-adjusted ERA on a scale where 100 is league-average, and every point below that is one percent “better than league-average.” The Yankees were owners of the second-best ERA- by relievers with a mark of 78, trailing the Astros’ 74, so that means that their bullpen was 22 percent better than the average bullpen.

They struck out 753 hitters, good for second-most in baseball, and had a WHIP of 1.21, which trailed only Houston (1.06), Oakland (1.18) and San Diego (1.19).

It’s not surprising Ottavino was excited to join them, as well as former Colorado teammates DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki.

What is Ottavino bringing to the Bronx? A career-best 2.43 ERA in 77.2 IP in 2018 with 112 strikeouts, a 0.991 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 193. ERA+ is similar to ERA-, because it’s also on the same scale where 100 is league-average.

According to a post by Beyond the Boxscore’s Bryan Grosnick, where ERA+ differs is it tells you how much better or worse the league was than that pitcher, instead of telling you how much better or worse the pitcher was than the league. Because Ottavino’s ERA+ was 193, that means the league-average ERA was 93 percent higher than Ottavino’s.

SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 2: Scott Oberg #45 of the Colorado Rockies pitches during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padresat PETCO Park on September 2, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 2: Scott Oberg #45 of the Colorado Rockies pitches during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padresat PETCO Park on September 2, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Where does this leave the Rockies? They’re losing their dominant eighth-inning setup man, but as Alexander Graham Bell said, “When one door closes, another one opens.”

Enter Scott Oberg.

Oberg emerged as one of the top arms in the Rockies bullpen in 2018. After an underwhelming first three years in Colorado when he couldn’t get his ERA under 4.94, Oberg broke out in a big way. He appeared in 56 games and pitched 58.2 innings, with a 2.45 ERA that was just a hair higher than Ottavino’s 2.43. Oberg’s ERA+ was 192, again just below Ottavino’s 193. His 0.989 WHIP ended up being better than Ottavino’s 0.991. Finally, Oberg’s 1.3 fWAR was, you guessed it, second-best of the 2018 Rockies bullpen, behind Ottavino’s 2.0.

He was also the one to whom Bud Black went to close out the National League Wild Card Game in the 13th inning, when he pitched an inning and a third and struck out all four Cubs he faced. Remember who they were? Kris Bryant, Terrance Gore, Javier Baez and Albert Almora Jr.

Oberg is most likely the favorite to take over for Ottavino in the eighth inning, but the Rockies’ options don’t stop there.

2018 trade deadline acquisition Seunghwan Oh could also fill that gap if needed. Last season, Oh appeared in the seventh inning 27 times, and the eighth inning 30 times, which was the most of any one inning he pitched. As he was called in South Korea and Japan, “The Final Boss” has experience in high-leverage situations.

He didn’t have as spectacular of a 2018 season as Oberg did, but he still pitched very well. Oh finished with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 68.1 innings, as well as an ERA+ of 188. He struck out 79 hitters between his time in Toronto and Colorado, against just 17 walks.

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The Rockies will certainly feel the loss of Ottavino, but assuming the guys they still have can embrace the “next man up” mentality, they should be able to carry on without him well.

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