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Colorado Rockies: Predicting the lineup as the new year looms

By Colin Gaiser |
DENVER, CO - JULY 27: Ian Desmond #20 of the Colorado Rockies hits a fifth inning RBI single against the Oakland Athletics during interleave play at Coors Field on July 27, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JULY 27: Ian Desmond #20 of the Colorado Rockies hits a fifth inning RBI single against the Oakland Athletics during interleave play at Coors Field on July 27, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
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DENVER, CO – JULY 25: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies watches his walk-off solo home run in the ninth inning against Collin McHugh #31 of the Houston Astros during interleague play at Coors Field on July 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Astros 3-2. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – JULY 25: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies watches his walk-off solo home run in the ninth inning against Collin McHugh #31 of the Houston Astros during interleague play at Coors Field on July 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Astros 3-2. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

As the clock strikes midnight on 2018, the Colorado Rockies are about 43 days from pitchers and catchers reporting and 87 days until the season opener in Miami.

This Colorado Rockies roster could certainly change before then – as most of us hope and pray it does – but it’s never too early (or fun) to speculate about lineup construction!

There is little ambiguity among Opening Day starters. In the outfield are Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl and Ian Desmond. In the infield, Nolan Arenado is at third, Trevor Story at shortstop and newly signed Daniel Murphy will take over at first base.

There is more uncertainty at second base, where Ryan McMahon is the favorite to start over Garrett Hampson. I would love to see Hampson give McMahon a run for the job (literally – the kid had the seventh-fastest sprint speed in the Majors last season, at 30.0 ft/sec.).

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And while people would love to see the Rockies get a catcher who bats over the Mendoza Line, a good defensive catcher is more essential. Tony Wolters is an elite defensive catcher and pitch framer, and Chris Iannetta has an especially good rapport with young pitchers, so the front office should not break the bank for a catcher who rakes.

Fast-forward to March 28 in Miami (at least we get that dismal Miami trip out of the way early, right?). How should we fill out the lineup card? Let’s take a look…

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 25: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies hits a 3 RBI home run in the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field on September 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 25: David Dahl #26 of the Colorado Rockies hits a 3 RBI home run in the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field on September 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Right-handed starter:

  1. Charlie Blackmon
  2. David Dahl
  3. Nolan Arenado
  4. Trevor Story
  5. Daniel Murphy
  6. Ryan McMahon
  7. Ian Desmond
  8. Tony Wolters/Chris Iannetta

Left-handed starter:

  1. Charlie Blackmon
  2. David Dahl
  3. Nolan Arenado
  4. Trevor Story
  5. Ian Desmond
  6. Daniel Murphy
  7. Ryan McMahon
  8. Tony Wolters/Chris Iannetta

Yes, I still like Chuck Nazty leading off. It’s where he’s spent the majority of his time with the Rockies, and he’s shown he is most comfortable there. Keep the guy you just signed to a six-year, $108 million extension happy.

Dahl is a good candidate to fill DJ LeMahieu’s shoes in the two-hole. If he can get the ball in play more consistently (and avoid another flukey injury), he could even be an upgrade over the 2018 version of DJ. His combination of power and speed is very enticing.

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The three and four spots fill themselves – Arenado and Story – but five through eight was the real disaster last year. This was the wRC+ and respective ranking of how the bottom half of the order performed in 2018:

5th: wRC+ of 87 (25th in MLB)

6th: 84 (21st)

7th: 65 (30th)

8th: 61 (25th)

Jeepers!

Right away, I am plugging Murphy in at number five against right-handed pitchers. He slashed an impressive .319/.356/.508 against righties last season, and anything close to his 2016 highs (OPS of 1.010 versus righties) would be amazing. His problem was left-handed pitching – he slashed .238/.276/.288 last season. That’s a significant career outlier (he’s a more respectable .279/.315/.399 overall), so I am plugging him in at sixth in the order against lefties.

Desmond’s splits were just as dramatic in 2018 – he slashed .280/.332/.509 against lefties and .216/.297/.382 against right-handed pitching. His power is welcome batting fifth, but he is no better than the seventh-spot against righties.

McMahon has plenty of room to improve – he needs better discipline in the batter’s box – but he showed his potential in 2018 and provided some of the season’s most remarkable moments. I have him ahead of Desmond on the lineup card against right-handed pitching, even if we know it will probably be the other way around.

Next. Is Adam Ottavino's return to the Colorado bullpen a possibility?. dark

As it stands, this lineup can do damage. But the 25-man roster needs more depth. An inevitable injury or rest day, particularly in the outfield, will make us ask questions of the the whole operation. One should hope this speculation will be laughably outdated soon into 2019.

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