Colorado Rockies: How Bud Black manages with stats and his gut
By Ben Macaluso
Trusting your gut or relying on stats can be the deciding factor in whether you win a ball game. That paradox is heightened much more than it was just a decade ago. This decision culminated in maybe the most highlight worthy moment of the Colorado Rockies 2018 season. If Nolan Arenado‘s walk-off homer to complete the cycle on Father’s Day was the moment in 2017, Matt Holliday hitting a pinch-hit home run almost 10 years after he was traded from Denver against his former team, was the moment this year.
That moment may have never happened though if Tony Wolters would have got on base in the at-bat before. That is according to Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black from a question asked by Rox Pile co-expert Kevin Henry in the pre-game media time the next day. The question became, how much of what you do as a manager is stat driven versus gut driven. (Read the answer below.) Let’s set the scene first.
On August 25, the Rockies are playing the St. Louis Cardinals and there is a scoreless tie going into the bottom of the seventh inning. Starting pitcher German Marquez was dealing but so were the Red Birds. There were two outs in the bottom of the seventh and the pitchers spot in the line-up arrived. Jon Gant was the relief pitcher. He has 3.34 ERA and was cruising through the inning.
Gerardo Parra was available off the bench and he had been a great option particularly as a pinch hitter especially earlier in a series against the Braves. Black said if Wolters had got on in the spot before he would have leaned towards Parra. He brings a lefty option against the right-hander Gant and the situation would have called more for a base hit to move Wolters, more than the bomb Holliday ultimately hit.
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With Holliday wearing purple again playing his former team in St. Louis, the moment seemed more appropriate. Rockies and Cardinals fans were simultaneously giving Holliday a standing ovation. That moment goes way beyond numbers. The home run that Holliday hit only counted for a run but the momentum that moment created was invaluable. The intangibles that one run created are something that matchups could never account for. The Rockies scored eight runs the very next inning and sealed a much needed win against a contending Wild Card opponent.
The matchup between Holliday and Gant wasn’t well established. It was a right-on-right. Parra was probably the better matchup statistically. Even if it was because Holliday had only a few major league at-bats up to that point. But that’s what a great manager does. They create moments. He created the best one of the season. Read how Bud Black balances managing with numbers and his instinct.
Kevin Henry: We talked last night (August 25) about your swap for Parra and Holliday there with two outs in the seventh. How much of what you do is stat driven versus gut driven as a manager?
Bud Black:
"I think a combination. There are times when there are a lot of variables. As it relates to last night. I thought that pitcher [Gant] and Matt versus that guy, was a pretty good matchup for us. Because I think Matt is a guy who can handle all sorts of pitchers and pitches. So this guy showed the ability to spin a breaking ball. Throws some breaking balls behind in the count. I always thought that Matt was a good breaking ball hitter. I thought that would be a good matchup for Matt.Now, again if Tony would have got on, Parra against a right handed pitcher, he would have matched up well too. I thought leaving the hole open there, maybe Parra roles one through. Base hit first and third. That’s what I’m thinking. For me it’s probably more just the individual matchup as opposed to statistically driven left-right, if there is a history that becomes a part of it too. You look at that and you try to get that matchup."
"You also look at how a guy is swinging. You look at what Parra has done off of the bench lately. The Atlanta hit, couple of big base hits off the bench here lately. He’s got hits pinch hitting. Matt’s got five at-bats with us. It’s still a little early to draw any conclusions there. Except that his track record over 15 years is pretty good."