Colorado Rockies: German Marquez is getting Coors’d

Given that Marquez has an elite curveball, that makes sense that his walk rate is slightly higher in Denver. He relies on curveballs to get many outs and a curveball is most effected by the mile high elevation.

But that’s not actually it. His expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA) is virtually the same between home and road for his curveball. His stuff is playing everywhere and the addition of a better slider and change up actually has him bordering on elite away from Denver.

Tony Wolters verried this as well calling his curveball “plus-plus” and saying that it plays everywhere.

Marquez’ hard hit rate at home is 38.5 percent with an average exit velocity of 89 mph. On the road, it’s 37.1 percent with an exit velocity of 87.7 mph exit velo. So that doesn’t show what’s happening either.

Instead, what’s happening can be shown in where the ball is ending up and not even how it’s being hit.

Marquez hasn’t pitched the same amount at home or road but based on the two graphs below you can see that he’s given up far more flares and burners at home (top) than on the road (under.)

This was detailed in his last start at Coors Field where Marquez allowed 10 hits, most of them of the weak variety. Those flares and burners are falling more and that explains why his .381 to .246 BABIP, depending on the location of the hill he takes. A better way to put it is his WOBA is 66 points higher than his XWOBA in Denver and 25 lower outside the Centennial State.

German Marquez, he’s being Coors Field’d to death. That helps to explain it … but the funny thing is, even with that and a pretty high ERA in comparison to his Colorado companions, there is still a pretty good pitcher hiding inside Marquez.

There’s one more note that I found interesting while researching this story. At Coors, he’s averaging just 88.4 pitchers per start. Away from Colorado’s capital he’s averaging 99.6. As documented above, he’s throwing the same amount of strikes, and he’s also throwing the same pitch mix in all the parks. Marquez even verified to me he isn’t intending to turn himself in a Jon Gray-esq pitcher that uses a curve on the road and a slider at home.

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Either Marquez is getting Coors’d in BABIP forcing Bud Black to goto the bullpen earlier or he may be getting tired quicker at Coors.

As well document altitude has a profound impact on sleeping and fatigue. Off of sheer observation of the pitch count numbers, and his ERA and strikeout splits second and third time through the order at Coors Field and away from it, there is a valid theory that he is being bitten by Coors Field’s altitude in more ways than just unlucky batted balls.

Once again this is not to say German Marquez has been bad because that is untrue and there are more numbers that suggest that there are fixable issues, issues nobody can control and random noise going on with Marquez than there is an indictment that he actually struggles at Coors Field.

What’s happened to Marquez is that there is small sample size, some poor luck and growing pains. And, most importantly, the fact that Marquez is now in a Colorado Rockies rotation that has undergone a transformation from rejects to rockstars.