Colorado Rockies: If you can’t beat Jacob deGrom, trade for him

The Rockies’ Opportunity

The Rockies, you may have noticed, have historically had trouble getting good pitching. I won’t burden you with the details of this. However, if you would like more information about Colorado’s lack of pitching, please see every article about Coors Field ever. This year, however, they are in particular need of a starter like deGrom.

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The Rockies were in first place less than two weeks ago before a string of bad play and bad luck dropped them down to fourth place and six games back as of deGrom’s Monday beatdown. The division is relatively weak and still well within reach if the Rockies can make improvements – and nowhere makes sense to improve like the top of the rotation.

The Rox are set at nearly every position on the field. Their current crop of young pitchers, led by Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray, is among the best in the organization’s history, though as always the back end of the rotation has been hard to fill consistently.

Despite some recent struggles, talent-wise, the bullpen is as strong as it’s ever been, with Wade Davis et al providing a depth and consistency that’s traditionally been hard to come by. Still though, the Rockies lack a true ace that can confidently match up with the Scherzers of the world; someone that they can confidently give the ball to in, say, a one-game Wild Card playoff.

The Deal

For what it’s worth, the Mets have stated publicly that they aren’t trading deGrom, though this is largely due to the fact that they don’t have to. deGrom is only making $7.5 million this year and he doesn’t hit free agency until 2021. If they don’t deal him at the deadline this year, they still have the offseason, next season, and part of another season after that to get something done.

If you’re the Mets though, why wait? deGrom is at risk for both injury and regression, so now would be a great time to extract maximum value. That said, if the Rockies were to try to trade for deGrom right now, they would be the ones paying maximum value, and there’s no guarantee that that is a thing that the team wants to do, or even can do. If the Mets make it known that deGrom is available, they are certain to be getting some pretty serious offers, especially from teams like the Yankees, Indians, Mariners, and Cubs, as well as Colorado’s division rivals Dodgers and Diamondbacks.

It’s hard to even imagine what type of bounty it might take to pry a player like deGrom away. Perhaps the closest comparable deal in recent memory is last year’s Jose Quintana trade, given that Quintana was an established starter under 30 with two years of team control remaining. In that deal, the Cubs gave the White Sox Eloy Jimenez (the number 12 prospect on ESPN’s top 100) and Dylan Cease (number 86), plus the unranked Matt Rose and Bryant Flete.

So that’s four total prospects, two of which are verified top 100 and MLB-ready, all for a guy with an ERA that, at the time, was nearly triple that of deGrom’s current mark. So what type of package could the Rockies put together that might be enough to convince the Mets to let a talent like deGrom go?

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The Assets

For starters, the Rockies have three prospects in the top 100: Brendan Rodgers (29), Ryan McMahon (31), and Peter Lambert (63). The idea of giving up either Rodgers or McMahon is painful to consider, however with Trevor Story locking down short and Ian Desmond finding a home at 1B (with a contract that makes him untradeable), they’re both blocked at the major league level. 2B could be an option for either Rodgers or McMahon next year, depending on what happens with DJ LeMahieu’s impending free agency, but certainly one or the other would have to be included.

David Dahl and Noel Cuevas are two names that are also sure to be talked about that already have some major league experience. Dahl is currently on the DL (again) and doesn’t have a clear starting job when he comes back and Cuevas has performed serviceably in his role as a right-handed option off the bench. Other options include prospects just outside the top 100 like Riley Pint, Colton Welker, Ryan Vilade, or Tyler Nevin or former prospects like Raimel Tapia and Jeff Hoffman.

On paper, a package like Rodgers, McMahon, Dahl, and Pint could be enough to pry deGrom away. It is possible, however, that the Mets would want younger players like Welker or Vilade instead as they stock up for the long road back to relevancy. It is also possible that a team willing to part with prospects higher up on the list could overbid Colorado, like if Cleveland were to dangle Francisco Mejia (7) and Triston McKenzie (19).

The Outcome

deGrom could play well at Coors – or as well as any pitcher can. He’s got excellent velocity, keeps balls on the ground, doesn’t walk anyone, and doesn’t rely on big breaking stuff. This is essentially the mold for a successful Coors Field pitcher, if such a thing exists.

Will the Mets decide to deal deGrom? Possibly not.
Will the Rockies go after him if they do? Probably not.
Should these two teams make a deal? Definitely.

The Rockies organization has a giant deGrom-sized hole in it that has never truly been filled. Maybe by Ubaldo Jimenez for one sweet season and a half, but still – Ubaldo was never the pitcher that deGrom is.

Next: An open letter to Bud Black

Meanwhile, Mets lack of support for deGrom is painful for any fan to watch and must be sheer agony for one of the best pitchers on the planet to live through. Bring deGrom to Colorado and both organizations win, the player wins, and the fans can start getting ready for Rocktober ’18.