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Colorado Rockies: Why is a poor record predicted for 2018?

By Kevin Henry

LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 25: Pitcher Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies reacts as he walks to the dugout after throwing wild pitches to score runs and give up the lead against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning of the baseball game at Dodger Stadium June 25, 2017, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 25: Pitcher Adam Ottavino #0 of the Colorado Rockies reacts as he walks to the dugout after throwing wild pitches to score runs and give up the lead against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the seventh inning of the baseball game at Dodger Stadium June 25, 2017, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /
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The Colorado Rockies head into next week’s Winter Meetings in Orlando with a lot of talent on their roster … and a lot of question marks that will need to be answered before next season.

As has been publicized, the Rockies were and are making their search for a catcher and closer their top priorities this offseason. Colorado took care of the catcher position on Friday it seems by signing Chris Iannetta to a two-year deal. Will Colorado re-sign Greg Holland to fill the closer role or will they go another direction? What about the Wade Davis rumors? Those decisions could make a big difference between the Rockies slipping back in the National League West or earning another trip to “Rocktober.”

This article believes that the Rockies are one of the teams who must make a big splash in the winter in order to be around and playing next fall. Part of the logic for that is explained above. Sure, Colorado has some major question marks that must be answered. But the article also said that the Rockies were “lucky” last season in some of their games, using this link on FanGraphs are the basis for their reasoning.

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Any baseball team at any point of the season will have some form of “luck” riding along with it. The wind blowing at the right moment or the grass cut a certain length can help provide some of that “luck.” Of course, the Coors Field haters of the world will say altitude and a spacious outfield has a lot to do with Colorado’s success as well.

But let’s get back to this season and if the Rockies are really that team that needs to make a big signing. Right now, according to FanGraphs, Colorado is projected to have a 78-84 season in 2018. Obviously, that won’t get the Rockies in the playoffs and would be considered a disappointing season after the success the team saw in 2017.

So why the poor projection? Part of it has to do with FanGraphs predicting Rockies pitchers will allow 5.10 runs per game next season after giving up 4.67 in 2017. That would well do with the uncertainty at the back end of the bullpen as well as a belief by many that rookie pitchers Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez will hit a “sophomore slump” next season.

FanGraphs also predicts the Rockies to score less next season (5.09 in 2017 to 4.92 in 2018). Is that because of the uncertainly at catcher, first base and the outfield next season? Where will Ian Desmond fit in and will he rebound from 2017? Is David Dahl coming back? Is another bat coming for the Rockies this offseason? Yes, there are a lot of questions and those questions lead to lower projections.

Next: What Jeff Bridich said about David Dahl's playing chances for 2018

Do the Rockies need to have a big splash at next week’s Winter Meetings? Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post told readers on Thursday that he didn’t expect the Rockies to make a big announcement in Orlando. We expect the same. However, the Rockies don’t need a “big announcement.” They need to firm up their question marks. Once the Rockies do that, they will be just fine.

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