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Colorado Rockies: Postseason picture with 12 games to play

By Kevin Henry

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 17: Carlos Gonzalez #5 of the Colorado Rockies stands a first base with first base coach Tony Diaz #43 of the Colorado Rockies following an infield hit during the first inning of a regular season MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 17, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Russell Lansford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 17: Carlos Gonzalez #5 of the Colorado Rockies stands a first base with first base coach Tony Diaz #43 of the Colorado Rockies following an infield hit during the first inning of a regular season MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 17, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Russell Lansford/Getty Images) /
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After flexing their offensive muscles on Saturday night in a 16-0 rout of the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies suffered one of their toughest losses of the season on Sunday afternoon at Coors Field.

The Padres totaled three runs over the final two innings, rallying for a 4-3 decision over Colorado. Thanks to a safety squeeze executed by Austin Hedges in the ninth inning against Rockies closer Greg Holland, Colorado has its seven-game winning streak against the Padres snapped. It also lost its 12th game of the season on a last at-bat and its fifth game of the season when leading after seven innings (the Rockies are now 71-5 in that department).

Colorado (82-68 overall) is now 21-12 in one-run games. The Rockies had won their previous four one-run games before Sunday’s loss.

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Sunday’s game, however, completely turned during a rain delay that lasted 83 minutes. Before the rain delay, Jon Gray was dominant on the mound, striking out seven in five innings. However, after the delay with Gray out of the game, Colorado’s bullpen couldn’t keep the Padres from coming from behind for a win that could play a big role in the National League Wild Card chase.

With the loss, the Rockies now have an 87.1 percent chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs. That’s down from 91.6 percent after Saturday’s win.

After a day off on Monday, the Rockies will begin a two-game series in San Francisco, keeping an eye on how their top threats for the Wild Card are doing. Speaking of them, how did the other two teams chasing the Rockies for the second Wild Card spot fare and where do they stand in terms of the odds? Let’s take a look.

Milwaukee Brewers (79-70, 2.5 games behind Colorado)

Sunday result: Defeated Miami, 10-3

Odds for postseason: 10.6 percent (FanGraphs)

Quick thoughts: Milwaukee took two of three games from the Marlins, scoring 10 runs in each of their two wins. Sunday’s Milwaukee win was keyed by an eight-run fourth inning. Travis Shaw went 3-for-4 with three RBI to pace Milwaukee’s offense.

The Brewers start a three-game series at Pittsburgh on Monday night.

Elimination number: 11

St. Louis Cardinals (77-72, 4.5 games behind Colorado)

Sunday result: Lost to Chicago Cubs, 4-3

Odds for postseason: 4.4 percent (FanGraphs)

Quick thoughts: St. Louis lost all three games against the Cubs at Wrigley Field this weekend, hurting their chances for catching the Rockies for the Wild Card as well as Chicago for the National League Central lead.

After a day off on Monday, the Cardinals open a three-game series against the Reds in Cincinnati.

Next: Which players made Colorado's all-time 25-man roster?

Elimination number: 9

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