Colorado Rockies: Grading and Analyzing the 2016 Outfielders

The Colorado Rockies sport one of the top outfields in the game. Seeing that, the Rockies front office anticipates competing in 2017. However, before fans sing the praises of Colorado’s 2017 squad, let us analyze how the 2016 outfield performed.

RYAN RABURN: 2016 GRADE D+ (fWAR -0.2)

Acquired prior to the start of the 2016 campaign, Colorado’s front office felt they got a steal in signing Ryan Raburn. Known as a professional hitter, Raburn raked a .301 average in 82 games for Cleveland in 2015. To say things didn’t quite pan out is an understatement.

Colorado’s thought process was that Raburn would come off the bench to provide offensive sparks against left-handed pitching. Despite playing in 113 games (the third most of any outfielder) Raburn managed to hit .229 against lefties, and .220 overall. As a result of not hitting somewhat high expectations, Raburn has not be retained by the club for 2017.

Despite such a low average, thanks to a 10.9% walk rate, Raburn was able to salvage a .309 on-base percentage. If we lived in an ideal universe, a big leaguer’s OBP should be 60 points higher than their average. In sum, there are a few positives to find in Raburn’s Colorado tenure. Due to Ryan not being a defensive liability, his OF leading walk rate, and a few clutch moments, Raburn’s short time in Denver was fun at times.

2016 was not a banner year for current free agent Ryan Raburn. However, Ryan possesses proven track record of hitting lefties. For this reason, expect him to catch on with a big league club in 2017.

DAVID DAHL: 2016 GRADE B+ (fWAR 1.2)

There is something to be said for meeting high expectations. David Dahl should know, he’s been doing it his whole life. As the 10th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Dahl had a high bar to meet. Playing across three different levels in 2016, Dahl made the bigs at the tender age of 22. Known as one of the top five-tool prospects in baseball, Dahl impressed in a short service.

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Appearing in 63 games with Colorado, Dahl slashed a .315/.359/.500 line. Additionally, Dahl mashed seven home runs and was successful on all five of his steal attempts. Looking underneath all the stats, there are two extremely impressive things Dahl accomplished in 2016. Firstly, Dahl accomplished a BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) of .404. Not only is .404 really high, it suggests some luck but mainly it means when Dahl hits the ball, he hits it HARD. Also, note that he sustained that BABIP over 230+ plate appearances.

The second really impressive feat Dahl accomplished started his first day on the job. Dahl’s accomplishment came to fruition in his 17th game of service. Dahl tied a 75-year-old Major League record by hitting safely in 17 straight games to begin a career. Experiencing such a successful start to his career, Dahl must be heading into Spring Training with sky-high confidence. Expect Dahl to make a lot of noise in 2017 in all facets of the game.

RAIMEL TAPIA: 2016 GRADE C (fWAR 0.0)

Almost identical to Mr. Dahl’s rise, Raimel Tapia played across three different levels in 2016 at the age of 22. As a September call-up, Tapia appeared in 22 games with the big club and hit for a modest .263 average. The bottom line is that 22 games really isn’t a big enough sample size to judge a player, but Tapia has a ton of positives going for him.

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Firstly, Tapia is a professional hitter. Despite being younger than the competition at every level, Tapia has a career minor league average of .317. Due to an orthodox batting stance which features an exceptionally long stride, scouts have never given Tapia much of a chance. After playing in second straight Futures Game, people are starting to respect Tapia’s game. As an example, Baseball Prospectus ranks Tapia as the Rockies’ number two prospect.

Equipped with slightly above average speed and arm, Tapia figures to stick in center field as his primary position, with the ability to play left field as well. The only glaring defect in Tapia’s game is his lack of power, which scouts seem to mention at very opportunity. In six minor league seasons, Tapia has slugged 37 home runs and 126 doubles. So he probably won’t bop 25 home runs a year but he will have his share of moments burning teams in the gaps.

Tapia did not exceed rookie limits in his limited time in 2016. Heading into 2017 Tapia figures to be the club’s fifth outfielder, expect him to be the first man up when injuries occur.

BRANDON BARNES: 2016 GRADE C- (fWAR -0.2)

In 2016, Brandon Barnes served as the Rockies’ fifth outfielder. As a result of his established role, Barnes bounced around between the majors and minors quite a bit, handling each assignment like a true professional. Offensively speaking, Barnes has seen better days. In total, Barnes only managed a pedestrian .220/.250/.320 line and because of this he has not been retained by the club.

In retrospect, Barnes was never meant to be an offensive force for Colorado. Barnes’ role was to be a sparkplug and play above average defense. Both of which Barnes did almost to perfection. Known as a prankster and all-around great clubhouse guy, Barnes kept the mood light through some tough times in Colorado.

Although Barnes will no longer be wearing purple and black, Barnes’ major league service may not be over. As an appreciation for his style of play, Barnes has signed a minor league contract with the Miami Marlins and is expected to fill a similar role there. In the end, Barnes’ attitude, hustle, and ability to play the game the correct way will always be appreciated by the fans in Denver.

GERARDO PARRA: 2016 GRADE F (fWAR -1.8)

In isolation statistics are meaningless. Especially advanced statistics. Although advanced statistics attempt to make life easier, they are not without flaws. Wins Above Replacement is an attempt to evaluate all of a player’s contributions on a baseball field. A difficult task to say the least. Therefore stats like this should be taken with a grain of salt. Wait … what does have to do with Gerardo Parra?

Well, according to fWAR Parra was the worst player in all of baseball in 2016. That’s hard to believe. Parra wasn’t a superstar, but the worst player in all of baseball!? We need to run a thought exercise.

Player A: 375 PA, 2 HR, 44 R, 24 RBI, 14 SB, .217/.260/.300 DEF: 2 A, 2 E, 170 PO.

Player B: 289 PA, 2 HR, 18 R, 19 RBI, 3 SB, .205/.294/.261 DEF: 4 A, 1 E, 134 PO.

Which player is better? Well, it is difficult to tell because both stat lines are similar. Both players hit below .220, one had a better OBP but also had an equal but opposite difference in slugging. Now, which player is Gerardo Parra? The answer is neither. The fact is that both of these players posted a better fWAR than Parra. In 2016 Parra’s stats went like this: 381 PA, 7 HR, 45 R, 39 RBI, 6 SB, .253/.271/.399 DEF: 9 A, 5 E, 116 PO.

Getting away from the numbers, the simple eye test tells us that Parra was a better player than both Player A and Player B. The only explanation this writer can compute for Parra having a lower fWAR is for the fact that Parra had fewer putouts and uncharacteristically had five errors. All of this being said, Parra clearly had a lackluster 2016. Once you consider the size of Parra’s contract and his output, it simply wasn’t good enough. The good news is that the Rockies have a two-time Gold Glover winner with a career .274 average as their reserve outfielder heading into 2017. Expect a bounce back season for Parra. Also, the irony of bashing fWAR is not lost on this writer.

CHARLIE BLACKMON: 2016 GRADE A (fWAR 3.9)

When it comes to center fielders, there a few better than Charlie Blackmon. According to Fangraphs’ offensive performance metric, there is only one center-fielder more talented at the plate than Charlie, and that guy happens to be two-time AL MVP Mike Trout.

In 2016 Charlie was ranked first among MLB center fielders in average (.324) and slugging (.552) while ranking second with 29 home runs and 111 runs. Clearly, Blackmon has established himself as an elite Major League center fielder. The fact that Blackmon won a Silver Slugger and was NOT elected to the All-Star Game in 2016 is a great shame. The only knock against Blackmon is that while his offense is elite, his defensive is average. that being said, Blackmon isn’t going to lose you a game defensively.

Much like Cargo, Blackmon has been the subject of swirling trade rumors over recent years. Heading into 2017, Blackmon appears primed to once again be the cornerstone to the Rockies offense. Reflecting back on the talent that the Rockies are currently sporting, it’s very difficult to not get excited over their potential in 2017.

Next: The Top 5 Right Fielders in Colorado History