Colorado Rockies: We Examine 5 Key Numbers From 2016

After one of the most historic and memorable World Series in MLB history, it’s now time to close the book on the 2016 season. Before we do that though, let’s take a look back at five numbers and stats that tell an important story about the Colorado Rockies past, present and future.

Baseball is a sport of statistics, probably more so than any other. The long season makes numbers crucial for telling the good from the bad, and the good from the great.

Pretty much anyone can watch a basketball game and quickly understand that LeBron James is better than the other players on the court. As the movie Bull Durham once famously observed however, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter is one more base hit a week. Over the course a six-month season, numbers are the only thing that give some context to what we’re seeing.

Of course, stats can be misleading as well. With the sheer amount of information out there, it can be hard to tell what’s relevant and what is not. In this article, we’ll take a look at five stats that I believe tell some kind of story about the Rockies, where they’ve been, and where they’re heading. Enjoy!

5) 52-52

Colorado’s record in series opening or closing games

The Rockies had a 26-26 record in series openers last season. Their record in series closing games? Also 26-26. It’s a coincidental bit of symmetry, but it also potentially speaks to an issue that Colorado would like to correct.

The Rockies were a .500 squad in those 104 games. But in the other 58 games that made up the rest of the season, Colorado went 23-35. It’s possible that’s just a fluke, but on the surface, it seems to suggest that the Rockies had a problem staying focused throughout an entire series in 2016.

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Teams often place a big emphasis on winning a series opener (obviously), and there’s often a focus on trying to finish a series on a positive note as well. The other games in a series though, the second game of a three-game set (or second and third in a four-gamer) are the ones that can make a season feel like such a grind.

It’s hard to prove definitely, but it’s not unreasonable to think that Colorado’s focus may have waned somewhat in those middle games. If the Rockies want to compete for a playoff spot in 2017, they can’t afford to let that happen again.

Walt Weiss is no longer the manager in Colorado, thanks at least in part to the the Rockies struggles with consistency last season. The next manager, whoever he is, will need to stress the importance of every single game. Winning on getaway day is great, but winning the day before is just as good too.

4) 1,330

Number of strikeouts by Colorado hitters

Colorado set a new single-season franchise record for strikeouts for the third consecutive year in 2016. Free agent acquisition Ryan Raburn managed to strikeout 80 times in just 223 at-bats (the exact same number of strikeouts as DJ LeMahieu in 329 fewer ABs). Five different Rockies (Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon) whiffed over 100 times on the season.

This isn’t ideal, but it also isn’t as prohibitive to good offense as some may think. There are absolutely situations in a baseball game where contact is vital, but there are more situations where a strikeout doesn’t hurt an offense any more than any other type of out.

If there are two outs and no one on base, it doesn’t make a difference if Arenado flies out to the warning track or swings and misses at strike three. After all, the end result is the same. When your team is full of power threats like Colorado is, strikeouts become even less damaging. Failing to move a runner up 90 feet doesn’t make much difference if the next guy hits one 450 feet.

Despite setting a team record once again, Colorado didn’t have some crazy number of strikeouts in comparison to the rest of the league. After all, 10 different teams had more. The World Series champion Chicago Cubs (still weird to type) struck out a ton and still had the best offense in baseball.

The plan isn’t flawless. Chicago’s offense, awesome most of the time, is non-existent at times when the home runs aren’t flying. But even if the Rockies strike out even more in 2017, that won’t necessarily prohibit them from being a better team.

2) 3.59

Tyler Anderson‘s FIP

FIP, for those who may not know, stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. ERA, the go-to stat for measuring a pitcher’s effectiveness, is somewhat flawed because it is highly dependent on things like luck and the defense behind the pitcher. FIP is a measure of what a pitcher’s ERA “should” be, based on the three things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.

Despite all the cliches about “pitching to contact” in baseball, once a ball has been put into play, a pitcher no longer has control over the outcome. While there are some exceptions, getting batters to hit the ball at fielders more often than normal is not a skill that carries over from year to year with a pitcher.

That’s why it’s so encouraging to see Anderson’s FIP as low as it is. When a pitcher comes from out of nowhere and has immediate success like Anderson did last season, one of the more common explanations is that he’s getting some lucky breaks on balls in play. That isn’t the case for Anderson, as his FIP suggests that his ERA of 3.54 was not an aberration.

Of course, Anderson wasn’t off the radar because of a lack of talent, but because injuries had derailed his career. Anderson has spent time on the DL in each of the last four years, including all of 2015 with a fractured elbow. But there’s a reason the Rockies used a first-round pick on him back in 2011, and he showed it in 2016.

Anderson’s FIP was the lowest of all rookie NL starters in 2016. The biggest reason why? A nasty sinker that generates a lot of ground balls, and perhaps more importantly, keeps the ball in the yard. Anderson also started to strike more hitters out later in the year, getting 40 punchouts over 43.1 innings in his last seven starts.

For long-term ace potential, Jon Gray is still the man in this rotation, but a 1-2 punch of Gray and Anderson looks like it could become a mainstay in Colorado.

1) 1,223

Number of strikeouts by Colorado pitchers

The simplest, most fool-proof way to ensure the other team doesn’t score is to keep them from hitting the ball in the first place. The 2016 Rockies, led by Jon Gray and his 185 punch outs, tallied the second-most strikeouts in club history, falling just 11 strikeouts short of the record held by the 2010 team.

The 2010 team, as you may remember, was the last Rockies team to seriously threaten for a playoff spot. Which team did this year’s squad pass for second all-time? The 2009 squad, or as you also may remember, the last Rockies team to make the playoffs.

Call to the Pen

Forget about altitude for a second: the real challenge of pitching at home for the Rockies is dealing with one of the largest outfields in the major leagues. A ball hit into the outfield has a better chance of turning into a hit at Coors Field than it does anywhere else in the Major Leagues. The solution for the pitchers? Keep the ball on the ground (see #2 on this list), or even better, keep it from being put in play to begin with.

The most exciting part is this looks like it’s only the beginning. The average age of last year’s pitching staff was 27.7 years old. That’s the sixth-youngest in MLB and tied for third-youngest in franchise history. If Gonzalez Germen or Jeff Hoffman takes Jorge De La Rosa‘s old spot in the rotation, the average age could be even lower next season.

Having a youthful pitching staff isn’t always a good thing (it’s worth noting that all five of the pitching staffs that were younger than Colorado last season were also terrible), but the Rockies aren’t exactly sending lambs to the slaughter here. Gray, Anderson, Chad Bettis and Tyler Chatwood were four of the five leading strikeout artists for Colorado in 2015. All four will be back in the rotation and are young enough that you could reasonably project growth in their future.

Next: Four Options for the Rockies at First Base

There are still questions for this rotation. It remains to be seen if Gray can handle the pressure of being an ace or if Anderson can make it through an entire season without a trip to the DL. But for perhaps the first time in franchise history, there is no questioning that the Rockies have young, exciting pitching talent.