Purple Monday: Colorado Rockies 2016 vs. 2015

It’s time for another edition of Purple Monday where some discussion about the Colorado Rockies hopefully takes a little sting out of the start of another work week.

Last week didn’t feel like a good one for the Rockies with two blowouts in San Diego, in games where Jon Gray and Jeff Hoffman did not look very good. The Rockies actually went 4-3 since over the past week, winning a series against the Giants and splitting the four-game series with the Padres.

Yesterday’s victory included another stellar start from Chad Bettis and a 10^th-inning home run off the bat of Mark Reynolds to salvage a split in San Diego. Sunday’s victory also marked win number 69 for the Rockies in 2016, which surpasses their total from 2015 when the team finished 68-94. Oh yeah, and there is 3 weeks of baseball yet to play. So that number will continue to go up.

I want to focus today on other areas that the Rockies improvement is quite obvious. Let’s get into it

Run Differential

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The Rockies current run differential is +17, even after the 14-1 loss to the Padres last Thursday. Take the Padres out of the schedule entirely and the run differential would be even more impressive. The Rockies have scored 28 less runs than the Padres this year in the 16 games the teams have played. Second worst run differential versus a team is -14 to the Tampa Bay Rays in only three games. These numbers show just how much the Rockies have struggled against bad teams in 2016. On the bright side, the Rockies are the only team that has a positive run differential without also owning a winning record.

In 2015, the Rockies run differential was -107. This was fifth-worst in Major League Baseball.

This season’s mark is currently 14^th-best in the league, so they have catapulted themselves up the ranks in this regard.

There are improvements on both sides of the ball. In 2015, the Rockies scored 737 runs, this year they already have 757. While the season is not over, the Rockies have allowed 740 runs this year, as opposed to 844 last year. To reach that this year they would have to give up an average of 5.47 runs per game. They are currently averaging 5.17 runs allowed in 2016.

Starting Pitchers

The rotation is one of the major reasons for the improvement in the differential outlined above. One difference has been a greater amount of consistency this year. The Rockies have relied heavily on five guys: Gray, Tyler Anderson, Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood and Bettis. These five have all made 16 or more starts, with Anderson being the only one with less than 22 starts. They have combined for 680.2 innings pitched. Last year, by comparison, the Rockies had eight pitchers start more than 10 games. The top five guys in terms of innings combined to pitch 616 innings.

Another statistic showing this year’s improvement is the number of quality starts. The Rockies have 71 quality starts so far this year, which is one in roughly 50% of games played. Last year, the Rockies ended the season with 54 quality starts, or one in 33% of games.

I also wanted to include a side-by-side comparison of the top 5 starting pitchers used between the two years. I have included ERA+, which displays how a player compares to league average (which is 100) and takes the ballpark into account, as well as number of strikeouts per nine innings. It is below:

1117.7Jorge De La Rosa1006.9Jorge De La Rosa1138.1

Interesting with this graphic is that Bettis and De La Rosa, were better last year both in ERA+ and K/9. Clearly, the other three options are much better this year.

WAR

Wins Above Replacement is the final way I want to compare these two years.

Last year, the 10 players with the best WAR (according to baseball reference) were:

Nolan Arenado: 5.8

Carlos Gonzalez 3.1

Jorge De La Rosa 2.8

Chad Bettis 2.6

Charlie Blackmon 2.4

DJ LeMahieu 2.3

Nick Hundley 1.8

Troy Tulowitzki 1.5

Yohan Flande 0.9

John Axford 0.9

Total: 24.1

This year’s list looks a little different, even with less games having been played:

Nolan Arenado 5.8

DJ LeMahieu 4.5

Tyler Anderson 3.8

Charlie Blackmon 3.7

Tyler Chatwood 3.3

Trevor Story 3.0

Carlos Gonzalez 2.7

Jon Gray 2.0

Chris Rusin 1.6

Chad Bettis 1.2

Total: 31.6

Keep in mind WAR values are cumulative, so the Rockies top 10 seem sure to increase the lead over last year in the coming weeks. Another exciting prospect is that all of these players will be with the Rockies next year, if they want to bring them back.

Clearly, the Rockies are improving. They continue to have a very legitimate shot at attaining a .500 record, which would be a great accomplishment and pave the way for even more success next year.

Next: 3 Bullpen Arms Colorado Should Consider for 2017

The good guys will take the field in Arizona at 7:40 tonight, for the first of three against the Diamondbacks. Tyler Anderson will be facing off with Shelby Miller as the Rockies look to continue Miller’s struggles.