Colorado Rockies: What Would a Realistic Final Record Be?

By Trevor Irvine | Aug 7, 2016

Aug 7, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) looks on looks on from the dugout in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

The Colorado Rockies unfortunately dropped their series today to the Miami Marlins, their first series loss in their last four. As of tonight, the team stands at 55-56, and sit four games out of the second Wild Card berth. What can the team realistically hope to be record-wise at the end of the season?

The Colorado Rockies are finally fighting for a Wild Card berth, which hasn’t occurred since 2010. The team is generally playing well, from the hitting (.270 as a team since the All-Star break, sixth in MLB) and pitching (3.67 ERA as a team, 12th in MLB). It is also tied for the second-most wins since the break with 15 (only one win shy of the Chicago Cubs).

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The Rockies have a tough rest of the month to negotiate. Four games against the AL West leaders Texas Rangers, six games against the NL East leading Washington Nationals, three games against the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs and three against the LA Dodgers. These 16 games will tell us a lot about where the Rockies stand as a potential playoff team.

The Rockies are playing well enough to go out with a winning record from this series of games. 9-7 would be a nice result versus some of the best pitchers in the game (Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg and Rockies nemesis Kenta Maeda are just some of the guys they are likely to face).

And with this guy below leading the offense, this is definitely possible:

https://twitter.com/Rockies/status/762453320019554310

The Rockies can score runs against anyone (even without Trevor Story). Their pitching has improved out of sight in 2016 as a group. The rotation set a new club record with 20 quality starts in July. Since the All-Star break, every Rockies starter has an ERA under 5.15:

Jon Gray – 3.03
Chad Bettis – 3.45
Tyler Anderson – 3.55
Jorge De La Rosa – 4.13
Tyler Chatwood – 5.14

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post argued that the Rockies could have the best rotation in club history (and if that’s going too far, certainly the best since 2009):

"Recent statistics are very un-Rockies like. Colorado’s overall road ERA is 3.62, third in the National League, trailing only the New York Mets and Washington. In winning 11 of their last 14 games entering the weekend, Rockies starting pitchers were 10-1 with a 2.28 ERA, with opponents hitting a meager .224."

How they finish the last seven weeks of the season will be the determining factor in this argument. They don’t have to be dominant, but if they keep pounding out quality start after quality start, this team has a chance to win some ballgames against quality opposition.

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The pitching will also get a boost from the expected September call ups of Jeff Hoffman (5-9, 4.35 ERA at Triple-A and German Marquez (9-6, 2.85 ERA at Double-A).

So what is a realistic final record for the Rockies? I think the team will largely split their remaining schedule, but they will win some games outright via their offensive power. I see a 84-78 final record. Considering last season they finished at 68-94, a full 16 game improvement is justified for this squad in 2016.

It won’t be good enough to make the playoffs, but 2017 looks very, very promising right now.

Next: Colorado Rockies Drop Series Finale to Miami Marlins

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise indicated.

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