Do The Colorado Rockies Have An MVP? Making Nolan Arenado’s Case

Sep 29, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman N. Arenado (28) throws to first base for an out in the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s be realistic about numbers

There’s less than a week left in the season, so it’s not like Arenado can hit ten more home runs (actually, wait a second…). His MVP resume is more or less complete, as is every other candidate’s, but let’s get real about numbers: for Nolan to have any shot to win the MVP, he ought to lead the league in home runs and RBIs.

He’s already not going to win the batting title (his batting average will actually work against him in the MVP race), so it’d be really important for him to win the other two Triple Crown categories for him to have any shot at this thing.

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Hey, listen, stat heads and sabermetricians, both amateur and professional: I get it. I get that RBIs don’t tell a very good story of how productive a player is, but rather the good fortune he may or may not get as far as runners on base when he comes to the plate.

I totally agree that a player’s productivity is based on more than just batting average, and even now as simple stats like OPS find themselves in mainstream use more often, there is still work to be done.

I’m on your side, I’m with you, and I wish that MVP voting were partially based on deeper sabermetrics than some of the superficial, traditional statistics.

But let’s be real about how reality works. If Nolan doesn’t lead the National League in (probably both) homers and runs batted in, he doesn’t have a chance with the voters.

Next: The bad team argument

Sep 21, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman N. Arenado (28) reacts to his strikeout in the fifth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Good player, bad team

One of the biggest things holding Arenado back is that he’s a great player on one of the worst teams in baseball. If you’re a true MVP, the line of thought goes, shouldn’t you make your team a little better? How come the team is so bad?

Again, just as with the sabermetrics angle above, this old school line of thinking is sort of dumb (especially this year, since arguably the three best candidates — Arenado, Harper, and Paul Goldschmidt — play for non-playoff teams). But if you think the good-player-good-team argument doesn’t hold water with MVP voters, you’re in for a disappointment when award season comes around.

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But there’s a monkey wrench here: Harper’s Nationals collapsed at the end of the year. They won’t make the playoffs. None of that is Harper’s fault (in fact, he’s the only reason they stuck around as long as they did), but the fact is the presumptive front runner is playing for a mediocre team.

The other two interesting candidates, Arenado and Goldschmidt, are playing for also-rans. Could the Nats’ demise leave Arenado in a better position for MVP voters? That is, since Harper’s team isn’t making the playoffs, would voters throw the good-team argument completely out the window and vote just on numbers?

Or… do we just give the MVP to Andrew McCutchen? Not to say he doesn’t deserve it; after a slow start to the year, he’s certainly been very good. But you can easily make a case for Arenado, Goldschmidt, and (most especially) Harper ahead of McCutchen, and I’m nervous about simply anointing the best player on one of the best teams as the Most Valuable Player every year. But hey, that’s just me.

Next: So can Nolan actually win?

Aug 28, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman N. Arenado (28) gestures on the field before playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The bottom line

The bottom line is that Nolan Arenado will not win the National League MVP this year. Put differently — I will be shocked if he wins. But then again, on a smaller scale, I never thought DJ LeMahieu would win the Gold Glove at second base in 2014, and now we’re here.

[ Related: Bye bye for yet another season , Coors Field! ]

Bryce Harper has been the best player in the National League this year, and he deserves the MVP. Despite the stupid Papelbon drama and some of the mindless fallout from that, Harper is not a villain — and he’s the best player in baseball.

This isn’t me stumping for him; I’d be giddy if Arenado won, especially because of his special defensive play at third base in addition to the power surge we’ve all enjoyed this year. But I’m also a realistic dude living in reality, and here in the real world, the best player in the National League this year is Bryce Harper.

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