Rockies 2016 Rotation Projections

As the 2015 season winds down, it’s time to start looking ahead to who will lead the Rockies in 2016.

Projection posts are fun ones to write, because of the high probability that you’ll turn out totally wrong and end feeling really dumb. But at this point in the season, what’s left?

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I wrote a similar post to this one last year, and reading over it now is both entertaining and sad. I was right about a couple of things: Jorge De La Rosa was and is the Rockies’ ace all season, and up until he was shut down recently due to tendinitis, he was the most reliable starter on the team. And I was right that Tyler Matzek, Jordan Lyles, and Eddie Butler would all start games for the Rockies in 2015.

Most egregiously wrong was my prediction that Jhoulys Chacin would be the number two starter. Instead, he was designated for assignment before the season even started, and the “solid back-end starter from another team” that I hoped for turned out to be Kyle Kendrick. Yeesh.

Here’s some good news: the Rockies only used 12 starting pitchers this year, as opposed to the 15 they used last year. That means slightly fewer injuries and meltdowns. But between Matzek’s yips, Butler’s growing pains, and Lyles’s injury-proneness, we still had more than our fair share of rotation issues in 2015.

Probably the thing that worries me most from that post last season is my assertion that Jeff Bridich’s firing of the pitching coaches meant change was truly afoot. The old ways would no longer be tolerated; there was a new sheriff in town. However, I don’t think anyone would argue that the rotation made significant strides this year. They’re still walking too many people and giving up way too many home runs. The team win-loss percentage with these pitchers was .412, up five points from last year. We need a more positive contribution from the rotation going forward, and I do not know from whence that will come.

Below are the starting five I expect to see unless a big trade or free agent acquisition happens.

1. Jorge De La Rosa

As I said above, DLR is the ace and should remain so into next year. He is getting older (next season he’ll be 35) and therefore more injury prone, but other than his Tommy John surgery, he’s never had an excessively long recovery time. He pitched close to 150 innings in 2015 and managed a .563 winning percentage despite the frequency with which he gave way to a bullpen that did not maintain the lead he gave them. He gave up a home run per 9, consistent with his career average, and struck out 134, the third-best mark of his career. DLR shows no real signs of slowing, and he has something that few Rockies pitchers seem to have: confidence in his stuff.

2. Jon Gray

Even though it’s had a bit of an inauspicious beginning, the Jon Gray era has begun. His basic stats don’t look great: 0-2, 5.53 ERA, 4 home runs allowed in 40 innings. But FIP is much kinder to him (3.63) suggesting that poor fielding had much more to do with Gray’s struggles than himself. He also strikes out nearly three batters for every one he walks, and if you’ve seen him throw that third strike, you know it’s a thing of beauty. Gray throws hard, he keeps his cool, and he profiles as a future ace (perhaps in 2017 when DLR moves on?). My only concern with him is coaching. After what’s happened to Eddie Butler, it’s hard to know whether the Rockies’ coaches know what to do with their pitchers in terms of injury prevention and sustainability at altitude.

3. Chad Bettis

It’s humbling for me to write this name, given what I said about him going into last year (exact words: please God no). But the Bettis believers were right, and I think he’s earned his spot in the rotation for 2016 (barring a spring training meltdown, of course). Bettis posted a better winning percentage than any other Rockies starter in 2015 (8 wins in 19 starts) and he boasts an 8.4 WPA+. Even though Bettis had tough outings, more often than not he gave the team a chance to win. Plus, he’s only 26 and not eligible for arbitration till 2018.

4. David Hale/Jordan Lyles

In that Hale spent most of the season being injured or not that good and Lyles spent most of the season injured, I am not super high on either one. Lyles saw drops in his BB/K ratio and in his K/9 before he hurt his big toe and went on the 60-day DL. However, his FIP and his HR/9 were better than 2014, so in the end it’s not Lyles’s stats that worry me. It’s the fact that he’s missed substantial time twice in two seasons for non-pitching-related injuries (in fact, his toe injury is more commonly known as “turf toe,” something that tends to happen to football players). I just doubt whether he’ll stay healthy enough to pitch a full season, and that is enough to make his stats irrelevant. Hale suffered a groin strain that kept him out of the rotation for over a month, and when he was in it he allowed a dismal 48 earned runs, including 14 home runs, in 68 innings pitched. I hope Hale blows us away in spring training, but if he doesn’t, I hope Lyles is healthy.

5. Eddie Butler/Chris Rusin

These two guys profile totally differently in terms of their stuff, but one has provided the Rockies with a .2 WAR this season and the other a -0.4. Butler has the goods to be a long-term member of this rotation, and it worries me that we haven’t quite seen those goods yet. Again, this is where I think the coaching could be called into question. Somehow Eddie Butler has not yet met the man who can give him the confidence and skills he needs to be a star at Coors Field. I hope that he will; in the meantime, he’s a liability rather than an asset. Rusin is likely to be a journeyman at best in his career, but every so often one of those guys hits pay dirt at the right time. Could Rusin turn out to be for us what Ryan Vogelsong was to the Giants, or, well, Jason Hammel is to the Cubs? I would like to think so, but I’m not holding my breath.

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Of course, there is always the chance that Jeff Bridich could go out and get a free agent starting pitcher, but that has been so across-the-board catastrophic in the last few years that I really hope he doesn’t. I hope he hires the right people to coach the pitchers we have and then trades some of our better hitters (Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez) to stockpile more young pitching for the future. That’s the way forward as I see it. Either way, I do not expect much from next year’s rotation, and you probably shouldn’t either.

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