The Colorado Rockies' Case To Retain Walt Weiss

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Aug 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies manager W. Weiss (22) watches the warm up of new relief pitcher in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Rockies will soon make a decision about their on-field manager, and while he’ll likely be fired this winter… let’s play devil’s advocate.

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Let’s play a little game called Colorado Rockies Devil’s Advocate: the game show the entire family can enjoy because the arguments never stop, the hot takes come flyin’, and the debates drone on!

This week on CRDA, we’ve got a great topic: Walt Weiss. That’s right! Walt Weiss! The man that mostly everyone expects the Rockies to fire this winter (er, like, on October 5), and the man who has been the recent subject of general manager Jeff Bridich’s speaking-but-saying-nothing interviews on MLB Network!

Yes, in this episode of CRDA, I’m going to argue about why the club ought to retain Walt Weiss for 2016. He’s the man for us now, he’s the man for us in the future, he’ll be the man for us always!

OK, stupidity aside, let’s actually think about the devil’s advocate case for keeping Weiss. Not only has Bridich been very noncommittal about keeping/canning the on-field manager, there are a couple of things I’ve been thinking about that might be working in Weiss’ favor.

First, though, let’s get this out of the way: I think Weiss will be let go after this season. The numbers aren’t exactly in his favor, and he isn’t particularly well thought of in Major League Baseball circles. I can’t argue against that, and I’m with the majority of you; fair or not, it’s probably time Weiss should go.

But let’s see what factors might be involved in him sticking around for 2016. You know, just as a thought exercise…

Next: Point One: The Rebuild

Aug 31, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies manager W. Weiss (22) before the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

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This is a tough one for some, but for all intents and purposes, you can certainly make the point that the rebuild — regardless of whether or not Jeff Bridich wants to use that term — began for the Colorado Rockies the day they traded Troy Tulowitzki. (Honestly it started long before that, but Tulo is a great delineation point in this franchise’s history.)

So with that, you could argue that a hypothetically fired Walt Weiss is wrapping up his tenure just as the Rockies are a few months into their rebuild, and the next manager is going to step in and be the man that takes the Rox to the promised land. Great!

The devil’s advocate in me argues the rebuild began when Jeff Bridich took over the reins nearly a year ago. He had a shot to fire Weiss in November, you’d imagine, but didn’t (or, perhaps couldn’t). He stuck with Weiss for the first year. Bridich made the biggest move in Rockies’ history this July with Weiss at the helm. Why can him now?

Unless there’s somebody better out there (more on that in a minute), I suppose the case could be made that the Rockies are already a year into a full re-build under Weiss. Why not see it through with a players’ manager?

I’d grant you that if that were the case, it’d make more sense from a player development standpoint for young players to have some kind of manager and coaching staff continuity. (I know. That’s a weak connection. Devil’s advocate, remember? Truth be told, I like this next point better, and the third one the very best.)

Next: Point Two: Familiarity

Aug 21, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies manager W. Weiss (22) reacts during the first inning against the New York Mets at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

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Just because you played for the Colorado Rockies, it does not make you more uniquely qualified to manage the Colorado Rockies. (Smart asses among us would argue that actually makes you less qualified — heyooo!!!)

But Denver is a unique place to manage baseball, relative to most of the other stops in Major League Baseball, and Denver is one place where you might have a slight advantage with a manager who understands how the ball plays here and what Coors Field is really like.

Weiss has that. In the fire-Walt-now defense, so do a lot of other guys, including some who might one day make good managers, like Jason Giambi, or Gabe Kapler. But playing four years in Denver — including three at Coors Field — means Weiss is literally hundreds of games ahead of almost any other new manager in that regard.

This doesn’t mean the Rockies should only look for alums to manage the ball club. Considering the somewhat slim-pickings of managerial-level talent that used to play baseball in Colorado, um, that would make for quite a long re-build.

But it does mean something like this ought to be taken into account a little bit with any manager; has he worked in a difficult situation before? In a unique stadium, or city? With unique or challenging payroll constraints? With any sort of significant adversity that goes above and beyond the “normal” daily big league grind?

Managing pitchers and a rotation in Denver — especially for a National League club — can quickly become one of those managerial nightmares. Is there anyone out there more familiar with it than a guy like Weiss right now?

Hey, speaking of other people out there…

Next: Point Three: Who's Better?

Aug 5, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies manager W. Weiss (22) challenges a call with umpire G. Davis (12) in the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at Coors Field. The Rockies defeated the Mariners 7-5 in 11 innings. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

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Seriously, who’s better than Walt Weiss?

That question sounds… bizarre… but what I mean is: where’s the guy who is completely worth overhauling the coaching staff and changing the direction of the team? Is Joe Maddon available? (No.) Mike Matheny? (No.) Bruce Bochy? (No.) Don Mattingly? (Well… probably not… but even if he were…)

Look, it’s really going to depend what is out there when the winter comes around and the Colorado Rockies decide whether or not to fire Walt Weiss. Are you going to feel good if Stu Cole takes over the managerial role? Is he an improvement over Weiss? Is he so much better that the Rockies will suddenly win?

I know, there are a couple candidates out there already: Bud Black is very interesting. I keep hearing J.R. House as an option. Somebody said Gabe Kapler the other day, and it blew my mind. There are others. There will always be others.

But Kapler is in player development; is he right for managing on the field right now? (And would he be that outwardly better of a players’ manager than Weiss?) House is managing in A-ball, and Black isn’t the ideal guy to preside over a rebuild. Rather, he’s probably a better option to be the go-to guy after next year, a la what the Houston Astros did when they dumped Bo Porter in favor of A.J. Hinch.

Y’all feel me??

Ok, here’s what I really think about all this, devil’s advocate aside…

Next: Where I'm Really At With Walt Weiss

Apr 6, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Colorado Rockies manager W. Weiss greets Milwaukee Brewers manager R. Roenicke before the game at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

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Truth be told, no more devil’s advocate, I expect Weiss to go this winter. He’s now had three really bad years in Denver; he’s 203-271 (.428) across that time frame entering play on Tuesday night.

I’d be very surprised if he came back, even with the Rockies’ generally insulated focus on keeping talent within the organization, often at the expense of the future of the organization as a whole. (See: O’Dowd, Dan.) But now, with a new GM (yeah, I know, one who was promoted from within… again), the Rockies will maybe (probably? Hopefully?) make the move to get rid of Weiss.

But I’ve gotta be honest about it: what changes if and when the Rockies dump Weiss? Will they suddenly be good under a new manager, as if they don’t, you know, still have to fix MASSIVE PROBLEMS like the rotation, the bullpen, the way they (don’t) hit left-handed pitching, and just generally everything they’ve ever done on the road?

Does Bud Black give them, like, a ten-game win jump simply be existing in the first base dugout at Coors Field? This is a long process to rebuild a baseball team, and it’s a process that involves so much more than the on-field manager.

Honestly, I’m about as ambivalent as it gets when it comes to Weiss; if he stays, fine, let’s fix all the problems he’s been unfairly saddled with or else we’ll never win. If he leaves, that’s great, but Black/Kapler/House/Anyone/Everyone is going to look awful in the managers’ chair if the Rockies don’t commit to actually building a winning ball club.

Firing Walt Weiss is, broadly, a perfect parallel to trading Tulo: if you do it, you better double down on everything else around and after you do it, or else making that move alone with no other plan to re-building will do absolutely nothing to make you better. It looks like this winter, the Rockies and Bridich will be tested on both of those events.

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The Colorado Rockies’ Case To Retain Walt Weiss

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