Did The Colorado Rockies Wait Too Long To Move CarGo?

Apr 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez tosses his bat as he reacts after striking out inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Gonzalez was teased in trades rumors all winter surrounding the Colorado Rockies. Now that he’s in an extended slump, has the team waited too long to move their right fielder?

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Paul Swydan of FanGraphs has a good piece up today with an interesting – if not controversial – premise: the Colorado Rockies missed their window on trading Carlos Gonzalez and now are stuck with a right fielder they might have been better off moving this past winter.

Whether or not you agree with the premise, it’s worth the read and some thought, and Swydan looks at CarGo’s declining contact percentages, and wonders if previous knee troubles are preventing CarGo from extending to the outer half of the plate to hit balls the other way (which is something CarGo has discussed).

We’ve written before about CarGo as a trade candidate, and depending on how the Rockies do this year and the type of year he has in right field, that might be a possibility. He’s still due about $37 million on his current contract, which is a lot, but not an impediment to moving him if the right team has the right need at the right time.

Swydan’s piece, though, made me think not only about CarGo, but about a few other players the Rockies may have arguably waited too long to move, too: Wilin Rosario, and Drew Stubbs.

Stubbs is, of course, completely lost at the plate and currently presents absolutely no trade value to anybody, anywhere, at any time. (What would the Rockies get back for him?)

Rosario is more intriguing, but stuck down in AAA now, he’d have to come back to Denver at some point and (a) hit well, and (b) prove he can play first base, or right field, or even catch again at the big league level to show other teams he’s worth a roster spot. So, at present, he is still at least a few weeks away from building up his trade value.

All this matters (or doesn’t) based on the type of season the Rockies will have in 2015. The way I see it, there are maybe three likely paths for the team, and CarGo (and from there, you can imagine similar cases for Stubbs and Rosario).

Path One: The Rockies Do Well, CarGo Has A Resurgence
CarGo is no stranger to extended slumps, but he’s also no stranger to incredible hot streaks. Maybe it’s not likely, but it is within the realm of possibilities that the Rockies could rip off a bunch of wins, play close enough to .500 baseball through the summer, and watch CarGo once again become the player he has been. At that point, GM Jeff Bridich would have to decide (a) whether the Rockies are “in it” at the trade deadline, and (b) whether CarGo’s resurgence is worth more to the Rockies in a trade that could return younger prospects, or as a corner stone to the franchise that can play out his contract in Denver.

Path Two: Regardless Of The Rox, CarGo Gets Hurt
Win or lose, CarGo’s health has always been uncertain. If he gets injured in any significant way again this year, the window to trade him might be gone completely – and forever – because no smart team wants to take on an outfielder owed so much money who can’t get on the field. Call this a worst-case scenario; the Rockies wouldn’t recoup CarGo’s value on the field if he can’t play, and they also wouldn’t be able to trade him for anything worthwhile.

Path Three: Rockies Tank, CarGo Tanks, Life Sucks
Many of you may argue this is the most likely path, at least judging by recent events. Let’s say the Rockies are completely out of it by the trade deadline, and yet, CarGo is hitting about .231 and never really gets out of the slump we’ve seen for the last month. Arguably, this would be a worst-case scenario more serious than path two, if only because the Rox are stuck paying a healthy CarGo lots of money to under-perform while being unable to entice another team to take him on for anybody worth much of anything in return.

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So, yeah. I’m firmly on the “trade CarGo” team, considering the up-and-coming outfielders in the Rockies system (which, by the way, our staff writer Connor Farrell discusses on Episode Four of the RCSNY Podcast).

But even I recognize that the club would get relatively little for CarGo now relative to his ability and track record, and it’s in the best interest of the Rockies if Bridich waits out CarGo’s slump (and Stubbs’ slump, and Rosario’s demotion) before wheelin’ and dealin’.

The Rockies are in a weird place as a team, and even more so with Carlos Gonzalez. It’s best to take a “wait and see” approach considering how early it is in the season, but Rockies management is lying to themselves if they don’t think the franchise is coming to a fork in the road in July.