Tyler Matzek, Regression Candidate

Jun 22, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies manager Walt Weiss (22) relieves starting pitcher Tyler Matzek (46) from the game as catcher Wilin Rosario (C) looks on during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Matzek was lights out at the end of last season, including tossing a complete-game three-hit shutout at Coors Field. Can he continue his development this year?

On August 19, 2014, Tyler Matzek lost a 7-4 decision to the Kansas City Royals, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. That was an improvement for him relative to his previous starts, and even though the loss dropped his record to 2-9, it actually lowered his ERA to 5.38.

Then, beginning with his next start August 25^th in San Francisco, Matzek was lights out. In his final six starts, he went 4-2 and tossed 40.2 innings. Across that stretch, he only allowed seven earned runs (1.55 ERA), gave up just 33 hits and 14 walks (1.16 WHIP), struck out 38 batters (8.41 per 9), and allowed just one home run (after allowing eight dingers in the previous 77 innings).

Hell, even in the two losses he had during that stretch, he threw a combined 12.2 innings and allowed just three runs while striking out 15 and only giving up eight hits. (He lost 1-0 to the Padres and 2-0 to the Mets in those games. Brutal.)

Obviously, he was pitching out of his mind down the stretch last year and those final six starts, including a memorable complete game three-hit shutout of the Padres in Denver, are what dropped his numbers into quality starter territory by year’s end.

As Spring Training winds down, there’s quite a bit of discussion around Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, Jorge De La Rosa, and, well, pretty much everyone else in the Rockies rotation. And Matzek (who’s starting today in Scottsdale), while being discussed, doesn’t seem to have the same focus as the others.

In other words, it seems like it’s an assumption he will help anchor the rotation and be a rock for the starters, especially with the absence of De La Rosa, Butler, and probably Gray for some time.

Is that really smart to assume? Nobody expects Matzek to toss up a 1.55 ERA all year like he did the last six starts of 2014, but that’s the point – his hot streak was unsustainable then, it is unsustainable now, and it tainted his final numbers into tricking us that he’s a little bit better of a pitcher than he probably actually will be.

Don’t forget about minor league Tyler Matzek, when we wondered if he’d ever reach his potential. He walked 96 batters in 97 innings across A and A+ in 2011, then walked 95 more in 142 innings at A+ in 2012, and then 76 more in 142 innings at AA in 2013.