Dickerson, Arenado Key to Rockies’ Continued Success

“As Tulo and Cargo go, so go the Rockies,” goes the saying. But is that really true anymore?

If you’re a diehard Colorado Rockies fan, you’re well aware of certain patterns that have emerged in recent years. Namely, the winning streak that is April followed by the inevitable collapse that is May/June; the rash of injuries, especially to pitchers, which generally leads to a rash of too-early call-ups or never-going-to-be-ready-for-prime-time fill-ins; and that collective sharp inhale we all take sometime around the All Star Break when Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez come up short in the field or in the basepaths and start out listed “day-to-day.” The Tulo/Cargo one is the one that hurts the most. Plenty of people believe that if those two could simply stay on the field all summer long, the Rockies could win and win big.

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I am not NOT a member of that group. Tulowitzki is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer if he can work out his health issues and truly produce consistently over the course of a season. Cargo does not have quite that potential, but he can gun for both a batting title and a Gold Glove every year, and he’d be a key piece in any playoff team the Rockies might field.

But despite the elite contribution these guys are capable of making, I don’t think the Rockies rise and fall on them anymore. At this point, the two most critical players on this team, for me, are Corey Dickerson and Nolan Arenado.

I believe this for a variety of reasons, but first and foremost is the way this first month of the 2015 season has played out. Plain and simple, when Dickerson and Arenado play, the team wins. Not every time, of course, and there are certainly other factors that contribute to those wins, but these two are the two we need on the field every day this season. Period.

Look no further than the team’s stats so far this season for proof of what I’m saying. DJ LeMahieu is obviously our hottest hitter right now, leading the majors at a .415 clip. No one believes that’s going to last, though, and ultimately he’s projected to hit somewhere between .280 and .290 this season. Right behind LeMahieu, Dickerson is hitting .338, followed by Tulo at .304 and Arenado at .303. Examining these numbers a little more closely reveals some interesting things.

While Tulo is third on the team in average, he has 15 strikeouts so far. That’s a 20.8% K rate, his highest since his cup of coffee in 2006.
Tulo’s .358 BABIP this season, his highest ever, lets us know that his offensive numbers have been juiced by a bit of luck.
He has also driven in only 9 runs up to this point, far off the pace for what he’s expected to produce. ZIPS and Steamer both have him driving in a little more than one run per two games he plays; so far, he’s missing that mark by about .13 runs.

Meanwhile, both Arenado and Dickerson are on pace to post better offensive numbers than initially projected in just about every category. It’s a long season, so I don’t want to extrapolate too much at this point, but they are proving themselves to be more offensively indispensable than anyone else in the lineup. The Rockies have only played two games in which one or both players did not appear, and the team lost both.

Another point to note is how wicked good Arenado’s defense has been. Tulo is the one who ordinarily gets attention for his incredible fielding, but he’s already made two ugly errors this season, while Arenado is over at the hot corner producing a one-man highlight reel every single night. He’s already saved five defensive runs this season, the fifth-best number in the majors, and I find it hard to believe he hasn’t actually saved well over that by doing things that would be impossible for most fielders.

I haven’t even discussed Cargo yet, mostly because he’s done nothing worth discussing. I’m not sure whether it’s a good or bad sign that he doesn’t appear to be battling any sort of injury this season. If he was, at least that would provide some explanation for his pitiful offensive production. But he seems well, just slumpy for no reason. He’s taken a slight turn for the better this past week, with his first multi-hit game since opening day on Friday. He’s just really not contributing anything truly worthwhile to this team, and they’ve managed to win anyway.

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It’s a long season, and that inevitable May/June collapse is no doubt upon us. I don’t mean to say that Arenado and Dickerson have what it takes to lead this team to a World Series victory. Many more pieces would need to fall into place for that to happen. But I think they represent a sea change for this organization. We are not dependent on All-Star-level production from Tulo and Cargo. There are other exceedingly talented players on this team who bring a great deal. And they want to win, too. As it turns out, Mark Kiszla, James Shields isn’t the only guy who can provide a needed shot in the arm.

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