How likely is it that Hunter Goodman makes the roster?

Coming into the 2024 spring training, I was all aboard the Hunter Goodman hype train. The dude absolutely raked over the last two years between Single-A Fresno, making it all the way up to Triple-A Albuquerque. The guy slugged 70 home runs between 2022 and 2023; how are you not going to be excited about the potential of him taking advantage of that thin Colorado air and smashing 30+ home runs?

Goodman was drafted in the 2021 draft and quickly progressed through the minor leagues, making his debut after just two years in professional baseball. Though he dominated Double-A and Triple-A pitching over the last two years, he struggled quite a bit in his major league debut in 2023. He hit just .200, striking out over 31% of the time, proving that a little seasoning night need to take place after just 15 games at Triple-A in 2023.

Goodman has never had a bad strikeout issue, just 26% in 2022 and 24.63% in 2023, but this spring has been a very different story. Goodman leads the team in strikeouts with eight, in just 22 plate appearances (that's a 36.36% strikeout rate). I know it is only 22 plate appearances, but when it is a continuance of his struggles in 2023, it paints a bigger picture.

Goodman was slated to fight for a spot as a right fielder, first baseman and potentially a backup or emergency catcher. After seeing what some of his mates have done this spring, he could find himself needing to prove he can get the strikeouts under control over a larger sample size in 2024.

Michael Toglia has been red hot this spring, something that could really hurt Goodman's chances of making the roster. In my first iteration of the 2024 Rockies roster, I had Goodman beating out the former first round pick, but after seeing Toglia's dominance and Goodman's struggles, I have flipped. I think that Goodman could use some more time at Triple-A to improve the approach against better pitching.

Chance that Hunter Goodman makes the Opening Day Roster - 7%

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