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Colorado Rockies: Is Jon Gray or Trevor Story more valuable in a trade?

By Kevin Henry |
May 5, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (55) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
May 5, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (55) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
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DENVER, COLORADO – APRIL 20: Starting pitcher Jon Gray #55 of the Colorado Rockies throws against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Coors Field on April 20, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – APRIL 20: Starting pitcher Jon Gray #55 of the Colorado Rockies throws against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Coors Field on April 20, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

On a sun-splashed Wednesday afternoon in downtown Denver, Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray put together not just another impressive performance, but another impressive performance at Coors Field, a place often pointed to as the equivalent of Dante’s Inferno for pitchers.

Over the course of 5.2 innings and 95 pitches (60 for strikes), Gray held the San Diego Padres to three hits and one earned run. The outing was his sixth at Coors Field this season, and he has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any 2021 home start.

Gray’s outing on Wednesday was his 130th career start for the Rockies, the only team he has ever known and the franchise that took him third overall in the 2013 MLB draft. He needs just two more starts to pass Jamey Wright for the sixth-most starts in franchise history.

The question is: How many more starts will Gray make in a Rockies uniform?

It’s not a secret that the Rockies will likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Entering Wednesday’s doubleheader with San Diego with a 12-23 mark, Colorado was not only last in the National League West but also had the lowest number of wins in the NL.

Colorado needs to start a rebuild, and it has two prime chips to trade at the upcoming deadline in Gray and All-Star shortstop Trevor Story. But which player could bring the greatest haul back to the Rockies in a trade?

Is Jon Gray or Trevor Story more valuable for the Colorado Rockies at the MLB trade deadline?

Let’s look at the cases for both players.

Apr 20, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (55) leaves the field during fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 20, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (55) leaves the field during fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /

Any time you talk about a player with the Rockies, home/road splits will often be a part of the conversation. With Gray, however, there has been balance both at and away from altitude.

Heading into Wednesday, Gray possessed almost identical home/road splits in his career. At Coors Field, he had a 4.44 ERA and had given up 46 home runs in 66 games (65 starts). Away from Denver, Gray has a 4.58 ERA and has surrendered 42 homers in 64 starts. His control, however, has been better in Denver, walking 105 batters at home and 133 on the road.

Also, left-handers have a career .260 average against Gray while right-handers have batted .261, showing more balance.

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This season, the home/road splits have been more widespread, with Gray posting a 2.00 ERA in six home starts and a 6.30 ERA in two road starts. But the numbers are also skewed in terms of innings pitched, with Gray throwing 36 in Denver and 10 on the road.

Along with showing he can succeed in Colorado, Gray is also healthy this season, something that couldn’t be said the last two years as a foot injury cut his 2019 short and a shoulder injury cost him the majority of September last season.

He’s also a pitcher, a commodity that is always needed for teams looking for quality depth and battling for a postseason berth.

Throw all of this together and it’s easy to see why Gray, who is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the season, will likely command plenty of attention at this year’s deadline. Outings like Wednesday should continue to catch the interest of teams, and the Rockies will likely have the opportunity to restock their farm system if they can find the right trade partner.

In this scenario, Gray may actually fetch a higher trade return than Story. Here’s why.

May 8, 2021; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Tommy Edman (19) is out at seconds as Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) turns a double play in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2021; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Tommy Edman (19) is out at seconds as Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story (27) turns a double play in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports /

When Nolan Arenado was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals on February 1, all eyes turned to Trevor Story and when the Rockies would deal him as well. Now mid-May, Story is still with the Rockies, but his days in Denver are likely numbered.

Story’s contract is set to expire at the end of the season and the chances that the Rockies, even with Jeff Bridich out as Colorado’s general manager, will retain Story and build around him are slim.

The 28-year-old Story will likely command a large contract, and Francisco Lindor set the shortstop market in the offseason when he signed a 10-year, $341 million extension after being traded to the New York Mets in the offseason. Will Story sign that large of a deal? It’s unlikely as the market for quality shortstops will be busy this offseason with names like Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and others potentially joining Story on the move. There are also plenty of questions about the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in the offseason.

Knowing the number of shortstops that will be on the market this offseason, will teams be willing to part with a high number of quality prospects in exchange for Story? Can the team that trades for Story work a deal to sign him immediately to a longer contract so they’re not just paying for a half-season of one of the game’s best shortstops? Those questions could well determine what comes back to Colorado in any kind of a deal.

Next. Our exclusive interviews with some of Colorado's top prospects. dark

Colorado has two strong trade candidates in Story and Gray. Which one will be the most valuable in terms of a return as the July 30 deadline draws closer? Don’t be surprised if Gray’s performance this season has elevated his stock significantly and he could even become more coveted than Story.

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