Colorado Rockies: FanGraphs playoff projection odds predict foreboding season in 2021

On the heels of two straight seasons of finishing fourth in the NL West with winning percentages in the .430s and trading their best franchise player for pennies on the dollar, the Colorado Rockies are, understandably, not in the discussion for playoff contention, despite what the Rockies front office and ownership seems to believe.

In fact, PECOTA projected that the Rockies will be the worst team in the entire sport in 2021, with a record of 60-102. If that comes to fruition, it would be the first time in franchise history that the Rockies will have lost 100 or more games.

Some people may find that projection to be a bit harsh but particularly if the Rockies trade shortstop Trevor Story sometime in the next few months, that may not be so far-fetched. It’s also why the Rockies have just a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2021, according to FanGraphs, who just released their playoff odds and regular season projections earlier this week.

While they aren’t as harsh on the Rockies as PECOTA was, they are still projecting that the Rockies will be 67-95, which would be last in the NL West. They also give the Rockies a 0.2 chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card team (assuming that the playoff structure returns to the way it was in 2019, which it will, as of this publication).

As you may expect, the National League West and all of baseball, in fact, is spearheaded by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and why not? They did win the most games in the National League in 2019, the most in baseball in 2020, won the World Series in 2020, and signed the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. That latter move may actually help the Rockies, in a way, though. FanGraphs projects that they will, for the second straight season, win the most games of all the teams.

For the Rockies, whether you believe that they are a 100+ loss team or a mid-90s loss team (like FanGraphs projects), or in the extreme minority of people (e.g. Dick Monfort and Jeff Bridich) that believe that the Rockies are an “extremely talented team,” there’s no denying that the Rockies are a worse team now than they were at the end of the season.

When Nolan Arenado is on your subtractions and Austin Gomber and Greg Bird top your additions, that’s a problem. And they were already a low-70 win team in the past two seasons (equivalent to that in 2020). So a projection in the 60s is likely going to be a very accurate one.