Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton makes progress in Hall of Fame Voting, but obstacles still remain

As the results of the 2021 National Baseball Hall of Fame class were announced late Tuesday afternoon, former Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton didn’t make it in his third year on the ballot. That’s not a shock given his short time on the ballot.

He did, however, make a sizable jump in the overall vote percentage he garnered, escalating from 29.2 percent in 2020 to 44.9 percent this year. That 15 percent jump is almost equivalent to what we saw with Larry Walker’s jump in 2018 from 21.9 percent to 34.1 percent. Major progress!

Helton also outpaced everyone on the ballot in terms of votes gained on all public ballots (released before the announcement date) at +33 according to the Hall of Fame Tracker put together by Ryan Thibodeaux and his team.

All of these signs are encouraging for Helton’s chances of being elected into the Hall of Fame. When Walker had his 12% jump in 2018 he was elected two years later and gaining the most votes of any player on the ballot is always a great thing.

But that doesn’t mean we can get all that comfortable that it’s going to be an easier ride into the Hall for the Toddfather yet as there are still quite a few other obstacles that need to be cleared before we book our second trip to Cooperstown to see a former Rockie be inducted.

There’s a wide range of obstacles for the former Rockie.

First and foremost, these gains are not going to continue at the same pace they are now. In Walker’s case, a major push on social media needed to happen and a revelation that advanced statistics are actually good helped dispel the Coors Factor that stained Walker in the eyes of some writers. Helton will still need help from both, but we’ll expand on that later.

Secondly, we need to consider the three current players who will be on the ballot for their 10th and final year: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling. While Schilling has requested that he be taken off the ballot so his case can rest with the Veterans Committee and his place on the ballot may be in question, Bonds and Clemens shouldn’t be going anywhere.

I suspect that many of the writers who have left these three off their ballots due to either their character issues or their steroid use are likely to finally vote them in. Especially in the cases of Bonds and Clemens, both are easily in the upper echelon of the all-time greats and it shouldn’t shock anyone that some writers view nine years of waiting as punishment for their steroid use that tainted baseball’s public perception. They’re going to take up some of the empty spots on ballots that showed this year, which featured 14 blank ballots that were submitted.

Another obstacle is the 2022 class of first-timers.

Third, we need to consider the incoming players on the 2022 ballot. The two biggest names that pose a threat to make it into the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. While A-Rod may have a lengthier stay on the ballot for many of the same reasons as Bonds and Clemens, Ortiz is more likely to capture a high percentage of votes early which could affect Helton. Additionally, if Bonds and Clemens get elected then that only makes the case for A-Rod a little easier.

In total that’s five players that will threaten additional progress for Helton in 2022. While there weren’t as many 10 player ballots this year, which means more open spots, I don’t think we’ll see a large number of them go to Helton in 2022, especially since he’ll only be in Year 4 and won’t need that boost right then and there as Walker did in his last few years on the ballot.

Fourth, Helton’s case may get stalled with other first basemen that will make their way on the ballot in coming years. I personally don’t believe there are many valid reasons for leaving Helton off a ballot right now, but I do believe there is one reason.

Some writers will never change their mind for one reason

There are currently three first basemen whose career is either arguably or undoubtedly better than Todd Helton’s: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto.

Should someone’s bar be set on the idea that a player improves the quality of the average Hall of Famer at their position, then at least Cabrera and Pujols will fit this mold as their career bWARs, 100.7 and 69.6 respectively, are above that of the average Hall of Fame first baseman (66.9).

Joey Votto falls just short of that mark (62.1) and Helton is right beneath him (61.8). Pujols will be a no-brainer while Cabrera should wiggle his way in. But if a small Hall-type voter is viewing positions in this way, then that could be a cause of concern for Helton as he doesn’t raise the bar of what an average hall of fame 1st baseman should look like (though he’s certainly very, very close).

Now for the other part that’s going to hold Helton back that’s obvious and we all hate it: The Coors Factor.

Some writers will just NEVER get over the fact that Helton played his entire career for the Rockies and so half of his games will be discounted because of it.

It’s a terrible way to look at things, but many of the BBWAA voters will think this way. With Walker, there was the cop-out of not playing his entire career with the Rockies and only have a third of his total ABs coming at Coors Field. That’s not the case with Helton and it’s something that writers will need to look past, especially since Walker’s Hall of Fame case was actually more solid than Helton’s from an analytical perspective.

There’s one example of a Coors bias that doesn’t make much sense.

But here’s how some writers will view Helton. Ryan Fagan of SportingNews.com released an article explaining his ballot. While the transparency in why you did or didn’t vote for someone is always great (and Ryan answered plenty of people’s questions on Twitter about this), he didn’t give Helton the same benefit of the doubt as he did for other similar players he did vote for, specifically Bobby Abreu.

In his article, he notes that Abreu had a drop-off in his 30s but doesn’t necessarily hold that against him. He also notes Abreu falls short of the average bWAR for a Hall of Fame right fielder but has seen enough in his career to vote for him for a second year.

Meanwhile, in his critique of Helton, he goes straight to Helton’s splits as a cause for concern (while stating he hates doing so) and calls out Helton’s late-career drop-off as the reason he left him off the ballot.

It’s a frustrating way to look at things between the two and, to me, it’s is a disingenuous way to evaluate a player’s career. If we only looked at a player’s drop-off in the second half of their career, then that should spell immediate trouble for guys like Ichiro Suzuki and Albert Pujols. Is it going to? Absolutely not because that’s ridiculous. But here’s how each Helton and Abreu compare:

Helton’s first 8 full seasons

48.2 bWAR (6.0 per season), 149 OPS+, 266 HRs (33 per season), 1,244 games

Helton’s last 8 seasons

13.8 bWAR (1.7 per season), 111 OPS+, 98 HRs (12 per season), 968 games

Abreu’s first 8 full seasons

45.2 bWAR (5.65 per season), 141 OPS+, 187 HRs (23 per season), 1,255 games

Abreu’s last 8 seasons

14.6 bWAR (1.8 per season), 115 OPS+, 98 HRs (12 per season), 1,096 games