Colorado Rockies vs. the competition: Who has an edge in race for postseason?
With just 18 games left to play in the 2020 regular season, the Colorado Rockies still have plenty of work to do if they want to make the postseason a reality.
After a 14-5 loss in San Diego on Tuesday night, the Colorado Rockies sit at 20-22 on the season. With the Rockies currently sitting 1.5 games out of the eighth and final National League playoff spot, it’s a tough view up the standings after an 11-3 start to the season.
Separating the current fifth seed for the postseason (Philadelphia) and the current 11th seed (the New York Mets) are just four games. That includes a three-way tie for the sixth seed between St. Louis, Miami, and San Francisco, meaning there are likely plenty of shakeups left in the standings between now and the final day of the regular season (September 27).
For the purposes of this article, let’s look at that three-way tie for the sixth seed, which is just 1.5 games ahead of where the Rockies currently sit. We’ll examine each of the teams and their remaining schedules, and whether Colorado has any kind of advantage. We’ll also look at the teams just behind the Rockies in the standings (Milwaukee at 1 game behind the Rockies and the Mets a half-game behind them) and what they have left in 2020 as well.
Let’s dive in.
Beginning Wednesday night in the series (and season) finale against the San Diego Padres, Colorado has 18 games left in the regular season. The Rockies are currently the ninth seed in the National League and sit 1.5 games behind St. Louis, Miami, and San Francisco (teams that would comprise the sixth through eighth seed in the season ended today).
After Wednesday’s finale in San Diego, Colorado has nine home games left (three against the Los Angeles Angels, two against the Oakland A’s, and four against the National League-leading Los Angeles Dodgers). The Rockies then end the season with an eight-game road trip (four in San Francisco followed by four in Arizona, including a double-header).
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Colorado is 9-12 this season at Coors Field and will need to rediscover its home field advantage in what will be a tough homestand (Oakland is currently the second seed in the American League and the Dodgers are at the top of the NL). Colorado’s last off day of the season comes after the three games against the Angels and before the A’s-Dodgers home gauntlet so there could be an advantage for Colorado’s arms there.
However, going straight from Coors to San Francisco to begin a four-game set doesn’t bode well for an offense that has struggled this season, even at altitude.
Two of the teams ahead of Colorado (Miami and St. Louis) were each impacted by COVID-19 and will have extra games to make up between now and the end of the season. While the Rockies have played 42 games, St. Louis has played 35 and Miami has played 37.
As mentioned earlier, San Francisco and the Rockies play each four times in San Francisco and that series could go a long ways in determining which team finishes as the third team in the NL West and has a better shot at the postseason.
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San Francisco’s closing schedule is certainly not easy, beginning with a four-game series in San Diego starting on Thursday night. The Giants stay on the road for two against Seattle and three across the Bay in Oakland before finishing with the Colorado four-game set and three more at home against the Padres.
San Francisco, by the way, is currently 13-9 at home this season.
St. Louis still has all 10 games to play against Milwaukee (a team one game behind the Rockies in the standings), including five at home (double-header included) to finish the season. Those 10 games could determine the fates for both teams.
Along with four double-headers still to play, Miami finishes the season with a tough seven-game road trip to Atlanta and the New York Yankees. So far this year, the road has been good to the Marlins as they’re 17-9 in those games.
Miami also still has 15 home games to play (including double-headers).
Which team is the biggest to worry about knocking the Rockies out of the playoffs? It could well be the Giants, if Miami and St. Louis aren’t worn out by the end of the campaign with their double-header-heavy schedule.
Colorado has two primary worries in the rearview mirror with Milwaukee and the New York Mets separated from the Rockies by just 1.5 games.
As mentioned earlier, Milwaukee has an interesting finish to the season, with 10 games still to play against St. Louis, including three double-headers (two of which happen in Milwaukee). The Brewers also have a weekend series at home against the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs coming up before they dive into plenty of action against the Cardinals.
The end to the season is certainly not easy for the Mets as they travel to Buffalo for three against the Blue Jays this weekend, followed by their final off day of the season before three games in Philadelphia. A six-game homestand against Atlanta and Tampa Bay is followed by a season-ending four-game series in Washington.
Of the two teams, Milwaukee seems to be the biggest threat to catching Colorado, especially with 11 games for the Brewers still at home (including three against Kansas City).
As expected, this shortened season is going to come down to the final weekend of the campaign to see which teams are in and which ones will just fall short. For the Rockies, there could be plenty of scoreboard watching happening as they try to win in Arizona during the season’s final weekend.