Colorado Rockies talk with DraftKings: Early season trends and tips

With a third of the MLB season completed, we’ve finally got some gambling patterns and trends from the Colorado Rockies to evaluate.

It’s the first time many of us in Colorado have followed these gamblings trends closely for the Colorado Rockies, so we got on the phone with Fantasy Baseball Analyst Steve Buchanan of DraftKings (follow him on Twitter here) to discuss these Rockies trends.

What’s popping out now? What’s viable going forward? Which Rockie would he take for MVP right now? And what other betting tips can some of us newcomers benefit from?

As Underdogs, the Rockies are Money

The Rockies’ surprising start didn’t just catch all of us fans off-guard, but many bettors who play favorites as well. After Friday night’s game against the Rangers, the Rockies were officially 8-2 on the money line as underdogs, the best in the league.

“Coming into the season the Rockies’ win total was set at 27.5 and I was 100% on the under,” Buchanan said of the Rockies’ hot start and his preseason expectations when we spoke to him on Friday. “The hitting and the offense has been so good.”

That’s exemplified by a nearly double-digit increase in wRC+ from 86 in 2019 to 95 this year. Much has been fueled by Blackmon’s hot start to the season, hitting for a ridiculous 196 wRC+ entering Monday.

“It wasn’t even like he was making good contact, he was just getting the barrel on the ball but who cares?” Buchanan noted of Chuck Nazty’s crazy hot streak.

A great start from the pitching staff has also helped make the Rockies a profitable underdog pick, much improved from their record last year when they were 37-66, easily one of the worst records in the league.

Buchanan’s not sold that this will continue, though. “The problem for me is I don’t think the pitching is going to hold up,” he explained. “They’re giving up a ton of hard contact, that’s where the problem is.”

And if you caught my article last week, you’d see he’s onto something. Each of the Rockies’ starters is getting hit harder more often this year even though they’ve been getting very positive results early on.

“I just don’t see it as a sustainable thing.”

Why you should look at the Run Line on Rockies games

The Rockies are now 13-8 on the run line, making them a Top 5 team in the league. That puts them in surprising company with the Yankees (who you’d expect), Marlins, Orioles, and Royals (all of which you’re probably shocked at).

If you’re unfamiliar with the Run Line, it’s where you’re betting that the Rockies will either win by more than two runs (-1.5) or will either lose by a run or pull out a win (+1.5). Whether the Rockies are favorites or underdogs will determine which line you see here (favorites will be -1.5, underdogs will be +1.5). And if the Rockies are favorites, this is an option you should be looking at to make a little more money on.

“Sometimes the money line is so inflated,” said Buchanan, “whereas you can look at the run line and say ‘I think they’re gonna win by more than 2’ and get a little more juice.”

For example, the Rockies were -190 favorites over the Rangers on Saturday’s game with Marquez facing off against Gibson. But on the run line, the odds are set at -104. To show the difference in value, let’s say you’re going to put $10 on the game. If you did that on the money line at -190, you’d only make a profit of $5.30 with a Rockies win. But if you put that $10 on the run line at -104, you’re nearly doubling your money with a profit of $9.70 as long as they win by 2 or more runs.

“As sports betting gets more and more popular, I think the run line is going to start to be a more popular bet,” said Buchanan of the line that you should absolutely be taking when you want to bet on the Rockies to win (when they’re favorites) as nine of their 12 wins have been by 2 runs or more.

First 5 Inning Bets and surprising trends at home for the Rockies

First 5 Inning bets (or F5 bets) are great to look at when you like a starting pitching matchup or if your offense starts fast. Luckily for the Rockies, both have been stellar to start as the Rockies are 12-4-4 on the F5 money line this season (this simply means they’ve been in the lead after 5 innings in 11 games, behind in 4 and tied in 4).

More interesting is the idea that the F5 Under is now 10-3 at Coors Field while full game over at Coors Field is 6-6-1. That shows how well a game can be contained early at Coors, but once bullpens come in all bets are off.

“Expect the trends to continue,” Buchanan suggested. “The thing with the Rockies is they have such a good core lineup and that’s where the money has gone…that’s such a dynamic lineup against lefties.”

And they’ve generally jumped on teams quick, leading to their convincing F5 record. At Coors Field, they’ve scored first in 9 of their 13 games.

This is another line you can bet on at sportsbooks that usually have pretty favorable odds for home teams since they don’t bat first and are thus less likely to score first. For Sunday’s games against the Rangers, for instance, the Rockies’ odds to score first are +130 while the Rangers’ odds sit at -160. With great starting pitching and a quick starting offense, this line has been very profitable so far and one I’ve liked to point out this season.

But is it a line you should follow every Rockies home game?

“I think the tough part about that is you can’t really find any stats that show it’s a good spot to take advantage of,” Buchanan pointed out. “I think that trend is 100% matchup-based. Not something I would be looking to take on a game to game basis. It’s so random. At Coors Field, obviously, with a better hitting atmosphere it’s better to look at but it’s such a random stat.”