The reasons why the Colorado Rockies can still win in 2020

Pitching

One of many downfalls for the 2019 Rockies was their pitching. Colorado had a bullpen that would have been better off turning to the staff of the nearest barbecue joint for help and a starting rotation that actually did that. But through the carnage, fans got a glimpse of why 2020 could be different. Despite being shortened by injury, Jon Gray had one of the best seasons of his career and has now posted two out of three great seasons for Colorado. If Gray is healthy, he could spearhead a young rotation with a chip on its shoulder.

German Marquez also battled injuries in 2019 while taking a bit of a step back, but it’s a good bet that he will return to form in 2020, potentially posting career-bests in several categories.

Speaking of returning to form, Kyle Freeland has to bounce back from his 2019 performance. The hometown hero posted the greatest pitching season in club history in 2018, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA on his way to a fourth-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting. That doesn’t happen without a wealth of talent and you can be certain Freeland dedicated the offseason to getting back on track in 2020.

If these three starters have the kinds of seasons they are capable of, they will help the Rockies win a lot more games than the 71 they did last season. Of course, they’re going to need support from two more arms at the back of the rotation. There aren’t going to be any moves made to bring in a pitcher so the Rockies will have to look internally for help.

Can top pitching prospect Peter Lambert take a step forward after an up-and-down season in which he was probably forced into action a little too early? Can Antonio Senzatela finally discover his full potential? Or will the team turn to a pair of veteran minor leaugers who gave Rockies’ fans an unexpected bright spot at the end of 2019? Chi Chi Gonzalez posted a 1.65 ERA over five games in September, certainly making the case for a closer look in 2020. Tim Melville actually ranked in the Rockies top ten players in WAR for 2019 and allowed two or fewer runs in four of his seven starts, including one or fewer in three of those starts.

The starting rotation is certainly not a lock, but it should be better than last season’s debacle. And if the three big names do what we know they’re capable of and get support from a couple of breakout seasons, the rotation should look more like 2018 and less like 2019. Unfortunately, to a certain degree, it doesn’t matter how well the starting pitching is if the bullpen is an absolute dumpster fire.

But after 2019, the Rockies seem to finally be shying away from using the trio of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee in high-leverage situations. If management is wise, they will replace those three with the up-and-coming trio of Scott Oberg, Carlos Estevez, and Jairo Diaz.

Overshadowed by the team’s struggles, Estevez easily had the best year of his career, posting a 3.28 ERA from May 25 through the end of the season and a K/9 over 10 across 72 innings pitched. Diaz was almost as good, posting a 3.07 ERA after July 25 and he eventually took over closing duties while Oberg was hurt.

With one of these three as the club’s new closer and the other two as set-up men, the Rockies might have the best shutdown trio since their 2017 playoff run.

Offense

This is where most of Colorado’s star power is concentrated and there is even more help waiting in the wings if given the playing time. Barring any trades, the Rockies have superstars at third base, shortstop, right field, and center field. Young slugger Ryan McMahon quietly had one of the best seasons for a second baseman in club history in his first full season and should take a step forward in 2020. All five of these players are expected to top 20 home runs in 2020.

In the final months of the season, two of the Rockies best players were Garrett Hampson and Sam Hilliard, both displaying a potent mix of power and speed that could spark the Rockies already dangerous lineup for years to come. Hampson’s outbreak was one that’s been a long time coming and could spell good things for Colorado in 2020 if he can keep it up. From August 28 through the end of the season, Hampson hit .330 with five home runs and 10 stolen bases.

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Hilliard looked like a superstar in the making during his month-plus with the Rockies, crushing seven homers while driving in 13 and hitting .273 with a 1.006 OPS. If the Rockies move McMahon to first base and slide Hampson in at second, they could have the makings of a bright young lineup that could torture any opposing pitching staff. If given the playing time, I think it’s fair to expect a breakout season from at least one of Hampson, McMahon, and Hilliard. And its not far-fetched to imagine all three thriving in full time roles.

It’s not a stretch to envision a team winning with this lineup:

Garrett Hampson, 2B

Charlie Blackmon, RF

Nolan Arenado, 3B

Trevor Story, SS

David Dahl, C

Ryan McMahon, 1B

Sam Hilliard, LF

Tony Wolters, C

Conclusion

Will 2020 be as bad as 2019? A lot of that hinges on what the front office does and a couple of bounceback performances–which is why I titled this post, “The reasons why the Colorado Rockies Can Still Win in 2020″ not “Why the Colorado Rockies Will Win in 2020.” But on paper, this doesn’t look like a team that will rack up 90+ losses again. 90+ wins might be equally as unlikely, but if last season was the year when everything went wrong, maybe this is the year when everything goes right.