Colorado Rockies: Will the Atlanta Braves circle back to a Nolan Arenado trade?

Last night, Josh Donaldson decided to sign with the Minnesota Twins on a guaranteed four-year deal worth $92 million (including buyout). As a result, he will not return to the Atlanta Braves, who now currently have Johan Camargo at the top of the depth chart at third base.

The Nolan Arenado trade rumors have been, outside of the Astros/Red Sox sign stealing news, the biggest news item of the past week to 10 days and every day, there seems to be new developments.

The newest development is the Donaldson news. With he and Todd Frazier signing with the Texas Rangers this week, it has left the free agent market nearly barren for third basemen.

According to MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, the only free agents who are third basemen left on the market (in alphabetical order) are Matt Duffy, Logan Forsythe, Brock Holt, Jung-ho Kang, Brad Miller, Martin Prado (who is likely retiring), Sean Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval, Yangervis Solarte, and Neil Walker. Only three of them posted a bWAR of 1.0 or above (Holt, Miller, and Sandoval) and third base isn’t even the primary position for most of the people on the list, including Holt and Miller. In other words, there isn’t much.

That means that many teams will be looking for a third baseman on the trade market, like the Atlanta Braves.

Currently, the Braves have Camargo slated at the top of their third base depth chart. He played in 98 games and had an OPS+ of 67 last year (it was a combined 111 in 2017 and 2018 in 216 games). By OPS+, his season was comparable (in Colorado Rockies terms) to that of Tony Wolters (64 OPS+) and Garrett Hampson (66 OPS+). Even if they don’t go with Camargo, Austin Riley would be next and he was a rookie last year who had an OPS+ of 86 in the majors. He has only played 119 games at Triple-A.

So it’s a very reasonable assumption that the Braves need a third baseman, which is why Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported between Christmas and New Year’s that the Braves had “inquired” with the Rockies on Arenado.

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So what could some potential deals look like between the teams? There’s a few different ways to look at it.

There are two main ways to look at a trade proposal for Arenado. One proposal that assumes that the other team would only have two years of control since he can opt out. This is the way that the St. Louis Cardinals seem to be looking at it. The other is that you could have seven years of one of the best third basemen of all-time on a team that needs a right-handed power bat and an elite defender behind young pitchers on a team that is usually a perennial contender.

That’s how we’ll look at the trade proposals.

Proposal #1:

This would be the lesser of the proposals. I get it, Rockies fans. It’s not enough. Who are these people? Well, let’s look at each of them.

Wright, 24, would be the headliner. He is, according to MLB.com, the #35 prospect in all of baseball and he was drafted fifth overall by the Braves in 2017. He has an upper-90s fastball (95-96 on average) and has shown to maintain that velocity late into games. He also has a slider, curveball, and changeup and all of them are rated above average.

His main issue has been control as in his two cups of coffee at the MLB level in 2018 and 2019, he has averaged 6.7 walks per nine innings (in a total of 25.2 innings). However, at Triple-A, he has averaged 3.1 walks per nine innings, which is obviously more palatable. He just needs to get over the hump in that category.

Wilson, 22, was ranked as the #82 prospect entering 2019 by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com but he slipped out of the top 100 in the after-season rankings. However, he still had a good season in Triple-A and has already appeared nine MLB games in parts of two seasons … and he turned 22 on December 20.

Contreras is the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras and is four days younger than Bryse Wilson so, obviously, he is still young and has a lot of development. He just played his first games in Double-A this past season. He’s the Braves #8 prospect right now and, by scouting rankings, he’s an average catcher. His main flaw is that he’s a bit of a free swinger, as he only walked 29 times between Single-A and Double-A last year (381 ABs).

This is probably right around what the Braves would be willing to give up. Now, here’s what the Rockies are probably looking for.

Even though it doesn’t involve Ronald Acuna, Jr. or Ozzie Albies, this is the trade that the Rockies (and Rockies fans) would like more.

Pache, 21, is MLB.com’s #11 prospect and the Braves #1 prospect. He just made his Triple-A debut this year and only played in 26 games there but he still hit well. Overall, on a scouting scale, his contact is a 55 (slightly above average) but power is slightly below (45). He is rated a 70 (out of 80), though, on fielding, throwing, and running. All three of those should give some intrigue to the Rockies for the sheer fact that he is a center fielder and that in the Coors Field outfield would be great.

Anderson, 21, is MLB.com’s #31 prospect, the #9 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and the Braves #3 prospect. He was drafted third overall in 2016 and he just made it up to Triple-A in 2019 where he struggled in five starts. He pitched to a 2.68 ERA in 21 starts in Double-A before his promotion, though.

He has an above-average fastball, curveball, and changeup with average control, which is the main thing he’s working on. He may be good for the Rockies because he struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings last season and he is also a ground ball pitcher, which would obviously be a plus in Coors Field.