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Evaluating the rumored St. Louis Cardinals-Nolan Arenado trade package

ByKevin Larson|
DENVER, COLORADO - SEPTEMBER 12: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies fields a ball hit by Jose Martinez of the St Louis Cardinals inning in the sixth inning at Coors Field on September 12, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - SEPTEMBER 12: Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorado Rockies fields a ball hit by Jose Martinez of the St Louis Cardinals inning in the sixth inning at Coors Field on September 12, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – OCTOBER 11: Carlos Martinez #18 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning in game one of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium on October 11, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI – OCTOBER 11: Carlos Martinez #18 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning in game one of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium on October 11, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)

Carlos Martinez – Pitcher

Carlos Martinez (RHP) comes in with seven seasons of Major League experience under his belt. He’s bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen throughout his career with the Cardinals using him most recently in the latter. He’s battled injuries the past two seasons but has came back strong as their closer last season. He has two years left on his contract and is owed $11.5M per season with two club options set for 2022 and 2023 (his salary would raise up to $17M and $18M in each season respectively).

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In 2019, he accumulated 1.2 fWAR in 48.1 IP. That may not seem very impressive initially. However, when looking at it from a WAR/IP perspective 2019 was actually his most productive season.

By Park Adjusted stats, he’s posted up some pretty decent numbers over the past three seasons in terms of ERA- (87, 90 and 75) and FIP- (93, 89 and 66). His 2019 ERA- of 75 would’ve ranked third in the Rockies bullpen (among relievers who threw at least 40 innings) behind Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez while his FIP- of 66 would’ve ranked him first. His FIP of 2.86 and xFIP of 3.76 would’ve also both been best in the Rockies bullpen in 2019.

One area of concern would be that each season his Hard Hit Percentage has risen, growing to 38.1% in 2019. That percentage would put him right in the middle of where Rockies relievers currently are. Martinez has balanced that out, though, by lowering his HR/FB% from 16.4% in 2017 to 4.9% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019. No Rockies reliever was below 10% last season (Oberg was best at 11.6%).

If the idea is to keep Martinez in the bullpen once he comes to the Rockies then I think it’d be a welcome addition. He could easily be slotted as the primary eighth inning guy or even his current role of closer (dependent on where you see Oberg fitting best). The Rockies need bullpen arms and his four pitch mix would play well at Coors and he doesn’t rely on many breaking pitches.

With two years remaining on his contract at $11.5M per season, he’d be a nice boost to the bullpen. The team options in 2022 and 2023 put his salary at what’s likely too high of a salary to consider ($17M in 2022, or Wade Davis‘ current pay). The $11.5M would make him the second-highest paid reliever, but if he performs at a level where his park adjusted stats stay similar then it’d be somewhat worth it for the Rockies.

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