Colorado Rockies rumors: Thoughts on the “50/50” chance that Nolan Arenado is traded

Jon Morosi of MLB.com is reporting that the chance of Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado being traded is “roughly a 50/50 chance” of happening.

The biggest rumblings this offseason for the Colorado Rockies has been the rumors about the Rockies trading their third baseman Nolan Arenado just one season after signing a (potentially) eight-year contract extension.

On Thursday, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted that Arenado “has roughly a 50/50 chance of being traded.” He also added that the Los Angeles Dodgers are not the most likely destination for Arenado since they are in the NL West, like the Rockies.

Phil Rogers of Forbes suggested in a tweet that the White Sox could be a fit, as the Rockies could be interested in players like infielder Yoan Moncada or outfielder Luis Robert.

In a later tweet, Morosi suggested that a return of those caliber of players is exactly what the Rockies would be looking for.

To throw a potential wrench in that for the White Sox (or maybe not), it was reported that the White Sox prospect Luis Robert has been extended to a six-year contract for $50 million that includes two club options.

Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post tweeted that his sources tell him that they would be “surprised” if Arenado is traded by spring training but that the “50/50” chance of Arenado is “fair,” but fair “at some point.”

To me, that reads that the 50/50 chance of Arenado could happen during the season around the trade deadline if the Rockies are out of playoff contention, like they were at the end of July in 2019.

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Thoughts

Personally, I think that there is more of a chance that Arenado is traded than many Rockies fans are thinking. They shouldn’t trade him unless they get a massive return for him.

However, I would say that if the Rockies are out of contention around the 2020 trade deadline, they must trade him so that they can get the best return for him and they will not get much next offseason considering that he can opt-out after 2021 (unless he waives the opt-out).

If you think about it, though, none of this would be happening if not for the colossal missteps of the Rockies front office. If they didn’t sign numerous free agents who have been total busts and/or free agents that were signed to play a position that was not their primary position (Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Mike Dunn, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, etc.), if they didn’t include an opt-out clause for Arenado, and if they were able to develop enough talent to back up Arenado and Story, the Rockies wouldn’t be in this position right now.

Obviously, hindsight is always 20/20 but when free agents (particularly pitchers) sign with the Rockies, they should have enough knowledge about pitching at Coors Field (and the transition to road stadiums) to determine which pitchers would be best for them.

But, alas, at least on the free agent market, the Rockies have been burned numerous times throughout their franchise history, and that has been a large part of why the Rockies are at a crossroads entering 2020.

UPDATE (12:42 PM M.T.): Jon Morosi tweeted out his article on the possibility of Arenado being traded and he says that up to six teams are talking with the Rockies about a trade, and the Braves, Rangers, and Nationals are believed to be three of the six teams.