Fangraphs ZiPs projections on the 2020 Colorado Rockies

DENVER, CO - JULY 15: Brandon Crawford #35 of the San Francisco Giants hits a first inning three-run home run off of German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies during game one of a doubleheader at Coors Field on July 15, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JULY 15: Brandon Crawford #35 of the San Francisco Giants hits a first inning three-run home run off of German Marquez #48 of the Colorado Rockies during game one of a doubleheader at Coors Field on July 15, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /
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Fangraphs just started their offseason ZiPs projections for all 30 MLB teams and the first team that they did the projections for was the Colorado Rockies.

The Colorado Rockies are a bit of a hard team to decipher on whether or not they will be contenders in 2019, considering that they made the playoffs in 2018 and in 2019, they were not close to even being in contention. However, that was partially due to injuries.

For that reason, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs projections for the 2020 Rockies on Fangraphs have a wide margin of error.

Most of the analysis are things that you likely know already.

For example, the Rockies offense takes a significant downfall after Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. The Rockies starting pitching is shaky, at best, after German Marquez and Jon Gray. Additionally, the Rockies bullpen would be a total disaster if not for Scott Oberg and Jairo Diaz.

Offensively, Arenado and Story are the only players with a projected WAR above 2.0, which is often considered MLB starting player range (0-2 WAR is “reserve,” or bench player territory).

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Pitching wise, Marquez and Gray are the only pitchers with a WAR above 2.0 and Oberg and Diaz are the only pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 (Marquez is right at an even 4.00).

ZiPs also considers all players with the last team that they played with so, as Szymborski says, “if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.” People like Craig Gentry (who retired), Mark Reynolds, and others are listed.

It also lists a lot of the players that the Rockies have at the minor league level that won’t see a lot of playing time at the MLB level, whether it be because they could be poached by another team in the Rule V draft (e.g. Roberto Ramos) or the Rockies “take their typical middle ground of shuffling their prospects up and down to the minors so as not to interfere with the playing time of their veterans.”

Next. Is Drew Butera the Thanos of their offseason?. dark

Overall, the projections do not paint a rosy picture for the 2020 Rockies. While they do not have win projections, the numbers for the players in the projections paint a picture of a team that is in the low- to mid-70s for a win total, which, if the Rockies don’t make any major moves this offseason (which they likely won’t), that’s where I personally would have them.

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