Colorado Rockies: The 3 scariest things that can’t happen in the offseason

MARTINSVILLE, VIRGINIA - OCTOBER 26: Detail of the helmet of Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Halloween Toyota, during practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 26, 2019 in Martinsville, Virginia. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
MARTINSVILLE, VIRGINIA - OCTOBER 26: Detail of the helmet of Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Halloween Toyota, during practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway on October 26, 2019 in Martinsville, Virginia. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
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PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Kyle Freeland #21 of the Colorado Rockies pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – AUGUST 20: Kyle Freeland #21 of the Colorado Rockies pitches in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 20, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

With today being Halloween, in the theme of the day, we thought that we would think of a few scary situations that the Colorado Rockies cannot afford to have this offseason.

The 2019 Colorado Rockies season did not end as they hoped it would when the Rockies broke from Spring Training in Scottsdale, Arizona. In fact, they regressed by 20 games by their overall win-loss record.

So with that, the Rockies will need to see some major improvements out of some key players if they plan on contending in the 2020 season.

Here’s our top three scariest things that we hope not to see this offseason.

No starting pitching acquisitions

Heading into 2019, most people (myself included) thought that the Colorado Rockies strength would be their starting pitching.

But with a massive regression from Kyle Freeland, a minor regression from German Marquez, and the last six weeks of Jon Gray‘s season being wiped out due to injury, it ended up being one of the biggest weaknesses of the team.

In fact, by starter ERA, the Rockies were dead last in the majors with a 5.87 ERA. That was nearly a quarter of a run worse than the next worst teams (the Angels with a 5.64 ERA).

While I personally wouldn’t expect Freeland to be as bad as he was in 2019, it would be absolutely asinine to expect that he post numbers like he did in 2018. Even if he, Marquez, and Gray all pitch really well, you can’t pitch with three starters for the entire regular season.

You can in the postseason (the World Champion Washington Nationals showed us that on Wednesday night) but you can’t in the regular season.

The Rockies would have to turn to two of these potential options for their fourth and fifth starters.

  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-6 with a 5.29 ERA (5.64 FIP) in 14 games (12 starts))
  • Tim Melville, who was just outrighted to Triple-A Albuquerque (2-3 with a 4.86 ERA (6.63 FIP) in seven starts)
  • Antonio Senzatela (11-11 with a 6.71 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 25 starts)
  • Peter Lambert (3-7 with a 7.25 ERA (5.97 FIP) in 19 starts)
  • Jeff Hoffman (2-6 with a 6.56 ERA (6.80 FIP) in 15 starts)

Not a particularly glowing list to choose from. Lambert has the best potential to be a good rotation piece of these five but it’s obvious that he was not fully ready to be in the majors.

And this is the best case scenario for the Rockies. What if Freeland struggles like he did in 2019? What if Marquez regresses again? What if Gray has lingering leg issues?

In other words, the Rockies MUST trade or sign starting pitching to contend in 2019. If they don’t, they will likely not be in contention.

Also, this ties in with another topic that we will discuss later.

DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 30: Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies runs to second base after hitting a double in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on May 30, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – MAY 30: Raimel Tapia #15 of the Colorado Rockies runs to second base after hitting a double in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on May 30, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

They won’t acquire some position player depth

The Colorado Rockies problem for much of their franchise’s history has been that while they have major superstar positional players, they do not have any talent behind them.

The Rockies of this era, yet again, falls in this territory.

They have Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, and David Dahl (when healthy). Who do they have after that?

Not much.

Offensively, there were only two players on the entire 2019 Rockies who hit better than league average besides those four guys. They were Sam Hilliard (136 OPS+ in 27 games) and Yonder Alonso (101 OPS+ in 54 games). Their next best offensive player was Ian Desmond.

He hit .255/.310/.479 with an OPS+ of 88.

Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon were right on his heels as they both had an OPS+ of 87.

Here’s the numbers for the other players.

Team Batting
RkPosNameGPAABRH2BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
1CTony Wolters*1214113594294171423668.262.337.329.66664
6LFRaimel Tapia*138447426541172394421100.275.309.415.72474
RkPosNameGPAABRH2BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
10UTGarrett Hampson105327299407498272488.247.302.385.68666
11CChris Iannetta521641442032106211854.222.311.417.72875
121BMark Reynolds78162135132374202257.170.290.311.60147
13CFYonathan Daza4410597720103721.206.257.237.49422
15IFPat Valaika4086791115514734.190.256.316.57238
17MIBrendan Rodgers258176817207427.224.272.250.52229
181BJosh Fuentes245655812137120.218.232.400.63249
19CDrew Butera16494367303414.163.229.233.46213
20CDom Nunez*16433947324317.179.233.410.64351
21LFNoel Cuevas1220000000.000.000.000.000-100

Not everybody is going to be a good hitter (e.g. Tony Wolters) but if they are at least good defensively, then they at least bring something to the table. However, Wolters was the only player of this group that had more than one Defensive Run Saved.

With that, as a team, they had an OPS+ of 87. Not everybody can be a perennial MVP candidate, but it is fair to ask for mid-level talent. The Rockies had very little of that. Don’t believe me?

By bWAR, outside of Arenado, Story, and Blackmon, not a single Rockies position player had a bWAR higher than 1.5 (Ryan McMahon). Outside of those three, the rest of the Rockies position players had a bWAR of -2.7.

The World Champion Nationals had five guys with a bWAR between 1-3 (and three players with a 4.0 bWAR or higher). The AL champion Astros had 11 position players with a 1.0 bWAR or higher. Even the 2018 Rockies only had three position players in that category. The 2017 Rockies had four.

It should be obvious now: the Rockies secondary position players need a major upgrade.

And that would partially come if our overarching third topic actually happened.

DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 16: Pitcher Wade Davis #71 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on June 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 16: Pitcher Wade Davis #71 of the Colorado Rockies throws in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on June 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

The Rockies won’t update/upgrade their evaluation processes

I get it. It’s not easy pitching in Coors Field.

However, considering that the team has been around for nearly 30 years and all of the technological upgrades that teams have now, the Rockies aren’t just behind the eight ball, they are a few pool tables behind the eight ball.

How they haven’t been able to evaluate their talent, particularly with pitching, is amazing. While I personally thought the Rockies rotation would be their strength, I did not think that Kyle Freeland would pitch as well as he did in 2018. However, I did not think he would regress as much as he did.

And the Rockies did not diagnose or fix his issues.

He pitched to a 8.80 ERA in Albuquerque. He returned and pitched to a 6.20 ERA and an opponent slash line of .317/.362/.568 before he was sidelined for much of the rest of the season with a strained groin.

Him returning and looking just as bad as before wouldn’t have happened if the Rockies would have been able to diagnose his issues better … and he’s not the only example.

Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Chad Bettis, Mike Dunn, Seunghwan Oh, and the list can go on for a while just on the pitching front, even back to the days of Mike Hampton and Darryl Kile.

More from Rox Pile

The offense is less scary from an evaluation standpoint but there are still some guys that baffle me. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia, and the recently-departed Pat Valaika are a few that come to mind.

They have also had recently departed players succeed in other uniforms when they did not in a Rockies uniform. Mike Tauchman, Tom Murphy, and Jordan Lyles are three that come to the top of my head.

Every organization has players that they don’t want to give up (e.g. the Cubs trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman) but those three were on the scrap heap and have gone on to play well with other franchises. And the Rockies got Phillip Diehl back for Tauchman (the other two were let go). Those three players played to a 7.9 bWAR in 2019.

The 2019 Rockies, as a whole, played to a 22.8 bWAR. That number falls to 10.8 if you don’t include Arenado and Story.

It’s really baffling when you look at it. The Rockies, in reality, would not be in the situation that they have found themselves in if they had some more advanced evaluation techniques to diagnose problems and see what could be on the horizon for future players and draftees (e.g. Riley Pint).

This massive issue with the Rockies has not been one that has just been noticed by those in Rockies territory, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic made it well aware that it has been perceived by many that this is the case.

dark. Next. Can Carlos Estevez build off career year?

This, unfortunately, is the scariest and biggest of the three topics and, unfortunately, I think that it will be the one that will go the least unanswered. And that does not bode well for the Rockies heading into 2020.

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