Colorado Rockies: Comparing this stretch to their disastrous 2014 stretch

The Colorado Rockies are currently mired in one of their worst stretches in franchise history and their worst stretch since 2014.

As we tweeted out last night after the Rockies 7-1 loss to the Padres, the Rockies are stuck in one of the worst stretches in franchise history, and it has spanned a quarter of the season.

It is the worst stretch for the Rockies since 2014, when in a 41 game stretch, they went 10-31. Let’s take a look at the comparison’s between the two stretches, as well as the before and what the 2014 Rockies did after the stretch.

Beginning of 2014 season-May 24, 2014:

• 50 games, 27-23 record (.540 winning percentage)
• 5 games back of Giants for NL West lead, 1 game lead on Dodgers for second NL Wild Card spot as of end of play on May 24.
• 5.2 runs scored/game
• 1.3 HRs/game
• .294/.342/.481 offensive slash line
• 4.03 team ERA
• 8.4 hits allowed per nine innings, 3.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Here’s a look at the Rockies numbers entering their current stretch of losing games.

Beginning of the season-June 20, 2019:

• 74 games, 40-34 (.541 winning percentage)
• 4th best record in NL, 1st NL Wild Card spot over Milwaukee by 0.5 game as of end of play on June 20.
• 5.7 runs/game
• 1.3 HR/game
• .272/.334/.465 offensive slash line
• 5.17 team ERA
• 9.5 hits allowed per nine innings, 3.5 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9

Notice that even this year’s Rockies had their losing stretch later in the season, their team winning percentages were nearly identical. The 2019 group had a playoff spot and the 2014 team was only one game back of a playoff spot.

Now, let’s take a look at what sank the boat for each team’s season and playoff dreams.

May 25 through July 7, 2014:

• 41 games, 10-31 (.244 winning percentage)
• As of end of play on July 7, worst record in NL by 1 game over Arizona, 14 games back of Dodgers for NL West lead, 12.5 games back of second Wild Card spot.
• 4.2 runs scored/game
• 0.9 HR/game
• .261/.317/.403 offensive slash line
• 6.36 team ERA
• 10.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9

June 21 through August 9, 2019:

• 42 games, 12-30 (.286 winning percentage)
• As of the end of play yesterday, the Rockies are in dead last in the NL West, 2.5 games back of the Padres for 4th and 24 games back of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Also, they are 8.5 games back of the 2nd NL Wild Card spot. The Rockies are also only one of four NL teams that is not within 5 games of a NL playoff spot. Nine teams are within 1.5 games of a NL playoff spot.
• 4.4 runs scored/game
• 1.2 HR/game
• .257/.310/.435 offensive slash line
• 6.24 team ERA
• 10.2 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9

Notice that each of the offenses scored at least one run per game less in the losing stretch. Also, each team’s team ERA increased by at least one run and the 2014’s team ERA increased  by 2.21.

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So let’s take a look at what the 2014 team did after their losing skid.

July 8-End of 2014:

• 71 games, 29-42 (.408 winning percentage)
• Ended season with 66-96 record, second worst record in NL (Arizona with 64-98 record), 28 games behind Dodgers for NL West crown, 22 games back of Giants for 2nd NL Wild Card spot.
• 4.5 runs scored/game
• 1.2 HR/game
• .272/.322/.433 offensive slash line
• 4.56 team ERA
• 9.5 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9

The numbers got better for them but they never again played to the level that they did in the first part of the season.

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is how the picture looks for the Rockies for the rest of the season. Granted, the Rockies this year have a month less of games than the 2014 team had. However, if the 2019 Rockies were to play to a .408 winning percentage the rest of the season, they would go 19-27, which would be a welcome sight for Rockies fans given their recent skid.

This would still put the Rockies at a 71-91, which is worse than anybody expected. This would be much better than a 13-33 record (or a .286 winning percentage, which is what the Rockies have played to in their last 42 games). That would mean that the Rockies would finish with a 65-97 record, which would be the second worst record in franchise history.

However, it’s hard to believe that they will play this poorly for still another quarter of the season but unfortunately, it looks as if by their play in this quarter of the season, the 2019 Rockies will fade into the horizon without a trip to the playoffs.