Colorado Rockies: 5 bold predictions for after the All-Star break

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The Colorado Rockies are certainly not where they thought they would be as the second half of the 2019 season dawns. At 44-45 and in fourth place in the National League West, the Rockies entered the All-Star break on a six-game losing skid and 14.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division.

Sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, huh? In some ways, it is. The Colorado Rockies have not met expectations so far this season, particularly on the mound. That’s one of the three biggest disappointments of the 2019 campaign that we talked about in this article.

However, it’s not all bad. The Rockies are one of six teams within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot so a third consecutive postseason appearance is certainly still possible. Will it be easy to get back to Rocktober? Absolutely not … but it is still possible.

But hey, the past is the past. The Rockies can do nothing about the previous 89 games. It’s looking ahead to the remaining 73 that are the key to unlocking another Rocktober trip. In fact, that’s exactly what we’re going to do in this article.

Based on what has already happened this season (and in seasons past), let’s dive into five bold predictions for the Rockies in the season’s unofficial second half.

Rockies will continue to struggle against the National League West

At the All-Star break, the Rockies are 20-21 against their division foes, holding winning records over Arizona (8-5) and San Diego (6-3) while going 4-5 against San Francisco and 2-8 against the Dodgers. Colorado has 35 games against their division foes the rest of the way, including six of nine games against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

If the Rockies are going to make the postseason, they simply have to win within the division … and I don’t think they start doing that enough in the second half. Los Angeles comes to Denver for the final time in the regular season at the end of July and the Rockies have to make a statement in that series … and they will be playing against a Dodgers team that will likely have Corey Seager and A.J. Pollock back as well as some potential new pieces acquired before the trade deadline.

Colorado’s rotation will improve thanks to a rejuvenated Kyle Freeland

OK, maybe that’s not a bold prediction as the Rockies entered the All-Star break dead last in starter ERA. However, there is a lot of room for improvement in the rotation … and it will happen in the second half.

Here’s why. Kyle Freeland will return from Triple-A and solidify the rotation, becoming a strong third option along with German Marquez and Jon Gray. Both Marquez and Gray will reduce their hits allowed (Marquez has given up 128 in 127.1 innings while Gray has surrendered 107 in 108 innings) and that will be key for the rotation as well.

With Freeland, Gray and Marquez pitching well at the front end, Antonio Senzatela and Peter Lambert can become the fourth and fifth pitchers and grow into those roles. If both can just find some decent consistency, Colorado has the pieces in place to have a good enough one through five rotation to let their offense win games.

Gray has been one of the most pleasant surprises for the Rockies in the first half. I predict that Freeland earns that honor in the second half as the rotation morphs from a question mark into a strength. Will it be as strong as we thought it would be when the season began? No, but it will be strong enough to help the Rockies win the games they need to win.

So if the Rockies aren’t going to get outside help for their rotation, will they pull a trade somewhere else? We believe so…

TORONTO, ON – JULY 03: Ken Giles #51 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after the final out a MLB game against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on July 03, 2019 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /

The Rockies will bolster the bullpen at the deadline

It’s deja vu all over again as Colorado and Toronto will make another deal this season.

Following in the footsteps of deals that sent Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto in 2015 and brought Seunghwan Oh to Denver last season right before the trade deadline, the Rockies and Blue Jays will once again work a trade this year as Ken Giles will be brought in to boost the back end of the Colorado bullpen.

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Here’s what MLBTradeRumors.com said about Giles in this article…

Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.

There are plenty of teams looking at Giles but Colorado will pull off a deal and send a pair of prospects to the Blue Jays for the right-hander, knowing he’s under control through arbitration through the 2020 season.

Giles and Oberg can form the set-up men for closer Wade Davis. And, if Davis falters, either could move into the closer role.

That will be the biggest deal the Rockies pull. Why? Because, in the collective mind of Colorado’s leadership, the offense is performing well enough to win and there is enough belief that the rotation will come together as discussed earlier.

However, that still leaves Jake McGee as the lone left-hander in the Colorado bullpen. Here’s our prediction that ties in with that.

Ben Bowden will impact the bullpen in a big way

OK, we know that Ben Bowden has plenty of talent in closing situations (20-for-20 in Double-A Hartford before being moved to Triple-A Albuquerque). We also know that Bowden didn’t show well in his recent Futures Game outing. However, there is still plenty of reason to believe that Colorado’s No. 16 prospect will make an impact in the very near future for the Rockies in relief.

Colorado Rockies

Bowden, the 24-year-old left-hander, is currently not on Colorado’s 40-man roster. However, don’t expect that to stay that way for long.

We predict that Bowden (and his .110 batting average against in the minors) will be called up as part of Colorado’s September call-ups and will play a key role in the Rockies’ bullpen success in the final month of the regular season. Of course, that would leave Jake McGee as the lone lefty in the bullpen until Bowden’s arrival but if McGee can keep performing as he has this season (1.35 ERA), it might just work.

Bowden is absolutely worth the roster move for the Rockies. Could it be at the expense of James Pazos, who has been struggling mightily in Triple-A since being acquired in an April trade? Pazos is currently just one of three left-handed relievers on Colorado’s 40-man roster (along with Phillip Diehl) so southpaws aren’t in great supply.

The Rockies won’t make the playoffs

We’ve talked a lot about good things that will happen for the Rockies the rest of the way … but we’re going to have to end this article with a bit of a downer by predicting the Rockies will not qualify for their third consecutive postseason.

So why do we think that? As we said in the offseason, there were plenty of National League teams who were making themselves better while the Rockies made smaller moves (acquiring Daniel Murphy as their biggest bombshell). We see the same type of scenario happening near the trade deadline as well with teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Phillies and Cardinals likely making bigger deals that will make the difference.

Also, as we discussed earlier, Colorado’s September schedule with 12 division road games is tough. The Rockies still have to visit the Yankees for three games as part of a 10-game road swing through New York, Washington and Cincinnati this month right before coming home for three against the Dodgers.

How Colorado fares in that stretch could be very telling for their postseason chances. They are entering the second half with an 11.2 percent chance of making Rocktober happen per FanGraphs. Nine other teams are given higher odds.

Next. The first half's three biggest disappointments. dark

I was booed at the preseason SABR meeting in downtown Denver for saying Colorado wouldn’t make the playoffs this season because of the lack of offseason moves and what I felt would be regression in the rotation. I want to be wrong … but I don’t think I will be.

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