Colorado Rockies: Players who may see their first-half fortunes change

The mean can be a cruel mistress. For those that fortune has briefly favored, she can pull them back down to their expected levels.

But regression can be forgiving as well. If a player keeps hitting hard line drives, they will eventually find grass. Pitchers whose ERA gets destroyed by some bloops that fall in will watch that number shrink as their sample size grows.

When you start to look at the Colorado Rockies, you can see that there are some that are playing over their heads that may come back down to earth, as well as some whose rough starts may be the results of some bad luck. Here is an examination of some players that may see their fortunes change over the second half of the season.

Two Players Whose Numbers May Get Worse

Tony Wolters

There’s a lot to like about Tony Wolters’ start to the 2019 season. So far he’s at career-high levels for batting average (.302), on-base percentage (.374), slugging percentage (.395), and weighted on-base percentage (.331). He should easily blow past his career highs in runs and RBI for the season, plus he’s sporting one of the top ‘staches in the league to boot.

There are some signs, however, that regression may be coming. Wolters has been the beneficiary of a .345 BABIP, which helps to explain why his actual rate stats are considerably higher than his expected rates. His expected batting average is .246, expected slugging .318, and expected WOBA .281.

Also of concern is the fact that Statcast ranks Wolters in the bottom 3% of the league in average exit velocity (83.6mph), hard hit rate (18.7%), and barrel percentage (0%) – that’s right,

technically Wolters has yet to barrel a single ball this season. These numbers all indicate that Wolters isn’t exactly killing the ball off of the bat and that a downturn could be coming.

The good news, however, is that the ‘stache should be fine. As the old saying goes: you can’t teach ‘stache.

Scott Oberg

It’s fair to wonder where the Rockies might be without the services of Scott Oberg. He’s been the team’s most reliable arm out of the bullpen, setting up closer Wade Davis (more on him later) and even taking over that role when Davis was injured.

As crucial as Oberg has been to the team’s success thus far, it’s fair to wonder if how long he’ll be able to keep up this level of play. His 5-1 record certainly looks nice on paper, but as we all (hopefully) know at this point, win-loss records aren’t great indicators of a pitcher’s true performance – especially when that record includes two wins that he received after blowing saves.

His 2.15 ERA is certainly a more accurate representation of his performance than his record, however below that sterling figure are some warning signs of potential trouble to come. Oberg’s FIP and xFIP are 3.48 and 3.83, respectively – an enormous difference between reality and expectation.

This gap is due in large part to a very fortunate 83.3% strand rate and a minuscule .220 BABIP – well below Oberg’s career .296 mark. Both of these marks seem to indicate that Oberg has been particularly fortunate so far this year and it would be rash to assume that this will continue throughout the season.

That said, even with luck factored out of the equation Oberg has still been among the team’s best pitchers and there’s no reason to think that will stop. His end-of-year numbers are unlikely to be quite as pretty as they are right now, but he should still be a crucial part of this team’s success going forward.

Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds has been an exceptionally useful role player for the Rockies in two of the last three seasons (he spent 2018 in D.C. with the Nationals). He’s provided a key source of right-handed power off the bench or starting in place of injured players like Ian Desmond.

This year, however, has been a different story. Reynolds’ return to Denver has seen him struggle to an unsightly .162/.294/.325 batting line that makes it look like age may have finally caught up with the veteran slugger.

Though Reynolds will be turning 36 in August, there may be another explanation for his downturn: BABIP. Reynolds’ batting average on balls in play is a shockingly low .217 – way, way below his career mark of .302. In short: his hits just aren’t falling in.

He is still hitting the ball hard – in fact, his 89.7 average exit velocity is his highest mark since Statcast data became available in 2015. His hard-hit percentage is a healthy 41.1% and his walk percentage is at a career-high 14.3%.

Make no mistake, time will eventually catch up to Reynolds as it does all players, but maybe there’s still a little shine left on the Sherriff of Swatingham’s star after all.

Wade Davis

Just as balls haven’t been falling in for Reynolds, too many have fallen in for closer Wade Davis. Davis sports an opponent’s BABIP of .355 on the season, which is even further away from his career norm of .286. For a closer with a naturally smaller sample size, this can make a huge overall difference.

Davis sports a rather unsightly 4.91 ERA, however his FIP is a more palatable 4.23. There’s also reason to think that he could see some improvement in his control, as Davis has walked 6.14 batters per 9 innings – nearly double his career rate of 3.44.

This abnormal walk rate may be partly due to the fact that Davis dealt with an oblique strain that landed him briefly on the IL for the end of May and beginning in June. With a few more regular innings under his belt it seems reasonable to think that Davis could easily return to the form that helped him save a league-leading (and Rockies record) 43 games last year.

Daniel Murphy

I confess that when I started researching this article I hoped – even expected – to see Daniel Murphy listed as a player who could expect some improvement in his numbers. After all, his .273/.317/.449 line is well below his established norms, especially since he became a poster boy for the launch angle revolution.

Unfortunately, as disappointing as these numbers are they could easily be even lower. His expected batting average is a brutal .229, expected slugging an anemic .336, and he ranks in the bottom 6% of the league in hard-hit balls rate.

To make matters worse, his exit velocity and barrel rate are at their lowest points since Statcast started measuring those numbers.

There are, however, some extenuating circumstances that have led to Murphy’s struggles. His BABIP is a somewhat low .298 (his career mark is .320), plus he dealt with an injured left index finger at the start of the season.

Murphy was cleared to play before the finger was 100% healed and pain-free, so it’s possible that this may have been sapping his power somewhat. He is hitting .333/.338/.513 in June, so here’s to hoping that was the cause of his decline, and maybe Murphy ends up improving on these numbers after all.