Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies sign best contract of the offseason

Hearing Nolan Arenado’s voice break talking about his teammates when he was introduced for his contract extension at Salt River Fields is the reason his contract was the best of the offseason and in Colorado Rockies history. It genuinely feels that he wants to be in Denver and he believes in the core of this team. The collective sigh of relief knowing that this negotiation won’t be a cloud hovering over the 2019 season doesn’t hurt either. But that’s not all that makes this the best contract of the offseason. Arenado’s contract will inevitably be compared to the likes of potential division foes in Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Comparatively, he and the Rockies have won in every way.

Let’s start with Machado who will be back to playing third base in a San Diego Padres uniform. Machado is much better in the field at that position than his experimental stop at short and should return to being a generational talent at the hot corner. His career 11.3 dWAR is enviable for any team and was only hurt with a -1.2 number while playing shortstop last season. Then you bring in Arenado and 13.3 dWAR for his Colorado Rockies career and you realize not only is he the best third baseman in the game today, he is vying for the conversation for the best that’s ever done it.

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His 2.5 dWAR/162 games is only behind Lee Tannehill (2.8) and above Brooks Robinson (2.2) and Machado (2). Arenado has played in less MLB games than all three players but his health so far brings optimism that he can maintain this consistency where injuries have derailed other Rockies greats minimizing the impact of their long term contracts.

Machado does lead Arenado in career offensive WAR 25.7 to 21.6 respectively but you must consider that the Padres new third baseman has played one more year than the Rockies star. While this is an area for Machado to outshine Arenado, he has never hit above .300 and has only hit over 100 RBIs once. Nolan has reached that milestone four times and hit more home runs than Machado. How ever you would like to factor in the effects of their home ballparks, the prospects of Arenado’s bat at a mile-high compare much more favorably to Machado’s swing in the pitcher’s haven of Petco Park. Advantage Nolan in terms of on field play.

Now let’s compare those contracts. Machado signed the largest contract for a free agent in big league history last week worth $300 million for 10 years. (That is until Harper most likely signs a larger one.) He has an opt out clause after the 2023 season which will pay him out $150 million by the time he is 31 years old. The Padres are going to be much more competitive beyond their recent free agent signings with one of the top ranked farm systems in baseball. But their lack of recent success and the way these long-term contracts usually work out (e.g. Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Rodriguez left their original long-term contract teams to sign with the Yankees) it wouldn’t be surprising to see him leaving for greener-contending pastures.

Arenado’s deal is possible because of an effective young pitching staff that is relatively inexpensive. The contract is team friendly giving them options when Arenado also turns 31 in 2021. It gives him much deserved money at the most by a position player annually at $31 million and an opportunity to become the greatest player in a franchise he loves playing for. After being scorned by free agency deals in the past, Rockies management and fans should be elated.

Arenado’s contract looks even better when compared to Bryce Harper. The San Francisco Giants reportedly met with Harper for a second time. The Los Angeles Dodgers want to sign him on a shorter-term deal and the Philadelphia Phillies are the only team offering him a long-term commitment. Harper already turned down an offer from the Washington Nationals that was in the ballpark of the Machado deal. The rumors were that the right fielder was reportedly looking for something in the ballpark of $400 million. Harper hit .249 last year. He did hit 34 homers and 100 RBIs. But his dWAR was -3.2 last season.

To put that into perspective, Mike Moustakas, who to be fair is 30 years old, hit .251 with 28 homers and 95 RBIs last summer and played a vital role in October. He resigned with the Brewers for $7 million for one year this offseason. While Moustakas deserved more in his first bout with free agency after a breakout year in 2017, Harper is not $23 million dollars better than the Brewers third baseman. Harper has rollercoaster stats at the plate. The true advantage Harper has over all of these players is getting fans into the ballpark. But that’s not the Rockies problem as they had their best attendance last year, since 2001. Even if both Machado and Harper sign in the NL West, it may be to the Rockies benefit. Have fun competing with those bloated contracts that statistically will not pay off.

The Rockies got the best player at the best contract. Arenado genuinely wanting to stay in Denver for reason beyond money just solidifies this. This extends the Rockies window for contention and makes sure Arenado will forever be known as a Rockie. The team and Arenado won a peculiarly frigid trade market and a year earlier than expected to boot. The 2019 season (and beyond) already looks like a win.