Colorado Rockies: Depth at every position heading into spring training

The offseason is almost over. We’re less than two weeks away from the Colorado Rockies’ first Cactus League Spring Training game on February 23 and, with any additional major moves looking unlikely, it’s time to assess the Rockies’ depth at all nine positions as we gear up for the start of the 2019 season.

What have the Colorado Rockies done since the Boston Red Sox won it all on October 28 of last year? Their offseason was headlined by the signing of free agent 1B/2B Daniel Murphy, who will likely be the club’s opening day first baseman. Colorado also signed free agent 1B Mark Reynolds, OF Michael Saunders, P Chi Chi Gonzalez and P Alec Asher to minor league deals. The team released their full list of non-roster invitees to Spring Training on February 6.

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So where does this leave the club depth-wise as we head into Spring Training? Let’s start with the outfield.

Moving on to the infield, where the Rockies are set in their plans for four out of the five non-pitcher positions. Perennial Gold Glove winner and All-Star Nolan Arenado will man the hot corner in what could be his last season in purple pinstripes before he hits the free agent market. Last year, Trevor Story rebounded from a disappointing 2017 season with his first All-Star selection in 2018 to put a firm lock on shortstop, and as I mentioned before, Daniel Murphy will likely make his Rockies debut on Opening Day at first base.

As I pointed out earlier, Mark Reynolds is back in Colorado on a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Reynolds spent the 2016 and 2017 seasons with Colorado before joining the Nationals in 2018. His first Rockies tenure saw him slash a combined .274/.354/.471 with an .825 OPS, which is the highest OPS he’s had with a team out of the eight for which he’s played.

Should he make team out of Spring Training, Reynolds can provide good right-handed pop off the bench, something the Rockies desperately needed last year, and provide good defense at first base on rest days for Murphy. He is also familiar with the organization, so that can’t hurt either.

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There were some appealing options at catcher on the free agent market this offseason to upgrade output at what was a pretty dismal position offensively for Colorado last year, most notably Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal. Rockies catchers combined for a weighed runs created plus (wRC+) mark of 67, which was good for sixth-worst in baseball. For context, wRC+ attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs. 100 is league average, and the stat is park-adjusted. Only the Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles and Red Sox saw worse production from their catchers.

The Rockies were content with their Tony Wolters and Chris Iannetta duo for chemistry reasons, though, and we can safely assume they’ll split time behind the plate for most of the season similar to what we saw last year.

Tom Murphy is the third catcher on the Rockies’ 40-man roster at the time of this article. He has shown flashes of being a productive Major League hitter but has never been able to put it all together. In parts of four seasons with the Rockies, Murphy has produced a .219/.271/.439 slashline with a career .710 OPS. He struggled in 37 games with the Rockies last year, striking out 44 times in 96 plate appearances, and a poor defensive game in Milwaukee on August 5 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. He was demoted to Triple-A on August 7, but was recalled again with the rest of the September callups on September 1.

The departure of fan-favorite DJ LeMahieu provides an open door for some promising options at second base. The Rockies appear fully prepared to trust in their youth in the infield as they did on the mound in 2018. Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson are both clamoring for more consistent Major League playing time, and they will play for the job throughout the spring.

The two co-creators of the Purple Dinosaur Podcast, one of the older and more well-known Rockies podcasts out there, MiLB writer Tyler Maun and MLB on FOX crew member Anthony Masterson gave their thoughts on who they’d rather see win the job on their January 16 episode, starting at the 57:00 mark. From Tyler:

“I’d go McMahon. I love Garrett Hampson, but I think he’s got a little bit more time that he can develop with. Ryan McMahon, earlier draft pick… he’s been in pro ball longer, I think Ryan McMahon is ready for that moment, whereas I think they have a little bit more time to work with Garrett Hampson… I think Ryan McMahon provides you a little bit more pop in the lineup, I would like to see Ryan McMahon as an everyday player.”

Anthony picked Hampson:

“I want to see Garrett Hampson get 500 at-bats this year, because I’ve watched him, I covered him at Long Beach State. I’ve watched him come through the system and put up the exact same outstanding slashline every single level no matter what. He’s an advanced bat, he’s an advanced glove as well. He got 48 plate appearances last year and slashed .275/.396/.400. He’s not going to hit 30 home runs, but he handles the bat extremely well, he’s a high-average guy, he steals a lot of bases, and he’s very efficient at stealing bases. He can play second, he can play short, I love Garrett Hampson.”

They’re not wrong. Hampson has a higher career minor league batting average than McMahon (.315 against .297), and he hit better than McMahon in his abbreviated major league stint in 2018. (.275 against .232). McMahon showcased his pop last season as well, hitting some huge, game-changing home runs, highlighted by his three-run, walk-off home run against the Dodgers.

Either direction the team chooses to go, I do not believe there’s a wrong choice between the two.

The remaining infielders on the 40-man roster are Arenado’s cousin, Josh Fuentes, and Pat Valaika. Fuentes has yet to make his MLB debut, but he has hit very well the past few seasons in the minor leagues. He hit .327/.354/.517 with a .871 OPS in 135 game with the Isotopes last year. His OPS hasn’t fallen below .869 since 2015, when he posted a .705 mark.

Valaika, on the other hand, is coming off a disappointing 2018 season with the Major League club. He saw time at all four infield positions, and hit just .156/.214/.246 with an OPS of .460 and an OPS+ of 16. He  He was a great offensive threat off the bench in 2017, when he hit 13 home runs and produced an OPS of .817, but that power and production vanished in 2018.

My projections:

Starters: Arenado, Story, McMahon/Hampson, D. Murphy

Reserves (ranked based on past statistics, overall talent and confidence):

1. McMahon/Hampson (whoever doesn’t earn starting 2B job)

2. Reynolds

3. Fuentes

4. T. Murphy

5. Valaika

Overall IF Depth Grade: B+

Finally, we’ve reached the pitching staff. German Márquez and Kyle Freeland broke out as a dominant 1-2 punch in the rotation last year, and each had their milestones to prove it. Márquez broke the Rockies’ single-season strikeout record of 214, previously held by Ubaldo Jiménez. Márquez finished with 230 total strikeouts. Freeland threw 6.2 shutout innings on the road as he led the team he grew up rooting for past the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. He also finished with the lowest qualified single-season ERA in Rockies history, with a mark of 2.85 over 202.1 innings.

Jon Gray took a big step back from his impressive 2017 season. He finished with a 5.12 ERA, and he gave up 98 earned runs, which led the National League, on 180 hits, and was even demoted to Triple-A for two starts. He gave up 27 home runs as well, which blew his previous career high of 18 out of the water. Whether it was because of mechanical issues or if there was something wrong between his ears was hotly debated all season long. Results are results, though, and numbers don’t lie. Gray didn’t live up to expectations last year when it was all said and done.

Antonio Senzatela and Tyler Anderson had rollercoaster 2018 campaigns. Anderson had a phenomenal April and July. He had a 1.88 ERA with 25 strikeouts in five April starts and a 2.16 ERA with 32 strikeouts in five July starts. May and August were his undoing. His May ERA was 5.28, and in August it was a horrific 11.39. He gave up a total of 45 runs in those two months alone.

Senzatela finished the year with a 4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 69 strikouts, and turned in some pretty good outings. September was his best month, when he posted a 3.25 ERA in five starts. Most of his struggles came in the earlier months. His pre-All Star Break ERA was 5.34, versus his post-All-Star Break ERA of 3.90.

Chad Bettis struggled in his first full year removed from beating testicular cancer. He appeared in 27 games, and started 20. He posted a 5.01 ERA in 120.1 innings with 80 strikeouts. The interesting thing about Bettis’ season is he started out as the Rockies most reliable starter. He threw 37.0 innings in April, and gave up just 10 runs, good for a 2.43 ERA. It was downhill from there.

The bullpen had some very good pieces, and some very bad ones. Adam Ottavino bounced back from his abysmal 2017 and transformed himself into one of the most lethal relievers in baseball. He was rewarded for it by way of a $27 million contract from the New York Yankees. Scott Oberg was a pleasant surprise, keeping pace with Ottavino throughout the season and coming in to close out the NL Wild Card game. He struck out all four hitters he faced. Wade Davis had an up and down year, but was mostly solid in his first season in Colorado. He also broke Greg Holland‘s franchise single-season saves record of 41 from 2017 with 43 last year. Seunghwan Oh arrived at the trade deadline in a deal with the Blue Jays, and also pitched very well.

DJ Johnson was also a surprisingly solid arm after making his Major League Debut. He appeared in seven games and actually made the Rockies NLDS roster. Yency Almonte was another young reliever who made his big league debut and fared well, having posted a 1.84 ERA in 14 games. Jeff Hoffman has yet to really find his footing in the major leagues, as he appeared in just six games, five of them as a reliever. Harrison Musgrave, Chris Rusin, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee and Mike Dunn all had varying degrees of disappointing seasons.

The good news for the Rockies is it would be pretty hard for these guys to have a worse year than they did 2018. Last year overall was not a good one for the bullpen. Colorado relievers posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.62) and had the tenth-most walks per nine innings (3.75). Rebound years from guys like Shaw, Rusin, Dunn and McGee would go a long way in helping the Rockies make it back to the playoffs.

Overall, assuming that the bullpen doesn’t completely implode following the loss of Ottavino (like it did in 2018 when he hit the IL), the club should be alright. It’s not a fantastic bullpen by any means, but the guys they have should be able to do their jobs when it matters most.

My projections:

Starting Pitchers: Freeland, Márquez, Anderson, Gray, Senzatela

Relievers (ranked based on past statistics, overall talent and confidence): Oberg, Oh, Davis, Johnson, Rusin, McGee, Hoffman, Shaw, Musgrave, Dunn, Bettis

Overall Pitching Staff Depth Grade: B-

To wrap this whole thing up, I don’t believe the Rockies have a phenomenal team by any stretch of the imagination. They will be good enough to stay in the hunt for the playoffs for most of the year, but many of the teams they competed with for the Wild Card last year have gotten considerably better. The Cardinals, Phillies and even the Mets could all be in the race and give Colorado a hard time. The Rockies have a dogfight ahead of them, and if they make it back to October baseball, they’ll have earned it.